Add another poll to a growing list of surveys showing U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio comfortably leading his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Val Demings of Orlando. And this one shows him ahead by double digits.
The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida spoke by phone with 622 likely voters Oct. 17-24. The study had a 4.7% margin of error.
For Demings supporters, the results are dejecting. Fifty-four percent of those polled said they plan to vote for Rubio compared to 43% who side with Demings. The rest refused to answer or said they didn't know whom they'll pick at the ballot box.
Respondents also spoke of how their friends and family members were likely to vote. The spread was even direr for Demings, with 48% saying they were certain their friends and family preferred Rubio and 31% believing Demings would get support — a 17-point difference.
Six percent said their friends and family were split evenly between the two candidates, while 16% said they weren't sure or refused to answer.
Respondents held less sunny outlooks for Demings when it came to how they believed their friends and family members will vote. Image via the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.
"Demings has raised a lot of money and has been on the attack for months, but Rubio is up double digits," said Dr. Michael Binder, a UNF professor and the faculty director at the PORL. "Florida has become a red state, it will likely take an exceptionally weak Republican candidate for Democrats to win statewide — and Rubio is not a weak candidate."
To identify a "likely voter," the PORL required poll respondents to fit one of three criterium: they either had to have voted in the 2018 midterm General Election, the 2022 Primary Election or have registered to vote in Florida in 2020 or later.
The survey had a 4.3% response rate.
Fifty-two percent of those polled were women.
In terms of party affiliation, 262 of the respondents (42%) were Democrats, 257 were Republicans (41%) and 103 said they belonged to another party or none (16.5%).
More than 61% of respondents said they'd gone to college. Sixty-four percent said they were White, while 23% were Black, 13% were Hispanic and the remainder said they belonged to another ethnic group.
Election Day is on Nov. 8. Early voting is now underway.
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