While California's Governor says he's not running for President and Florida's Governor has a long way to go to get the Republican nomination, new polling shows that if they did get their parties' nominations, the popular vote would be close.
In a YouGov survey of 1,000 U.S. citizens conducted Nov. 20-27, Ron DeSantis has a marginal lead over Gavin Newsom, with 32% saying they'd back the Florida Republican and 31% saying they'd support the California Democrat.
Party splits are somewhat more favorable for DeSantis than for Newsom, with 73% of Republicans saying they'd back the Floridian, versus 64% of Democrats opting for Newsom. Just 3% would cross over to vote for the other party's nominee in this hypothetical, while independent voters split, with 23% support for both DeSantis and Newsom.
Regionally, the advantage seems to be with Newsom, who carries all geographic regions of the county except for the South, where DeSantis enjoys a 37% to 27% advantage. Newsom leads 40% to 27% in the West, along with a one-point lead in the Northeast and a two-point advantage in the Midwest.
The Newsom-DeSantis dynamic has a special salience this week given the upcoming debate Thursday night at 9 p.m. on Fox News, and it's possible that face off on Sean Hannity's show could change minds, given that 35% of those polled said they "definitely" or "probably will" watch the telecast.
Breaking down that data further, the event appears to be a net advantage for DeSantis, as 46% of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 say they will watch, against just 35% of Joe Biden supporters in the last election. This potentially gives DeSantis a unique opportunity to reach voters in the former President's camp historically.
Also to DeSantis' advantage, 39% of senior citizens polled say they will watch him debate Newsom, along with 50% of those who claim they make $100,000 or more per year.
The pollsters also evaluated perceptions of California and Florida, and the Sunshine State prevailed in one key metric, with 40% of respondents saying they'd rather live in Florida, versus 37% who would prefer living in the Golden State.
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