A new survey of 1,000 Sunshine State voters presents good news for a former President seeking a return to the White House and a Senator pursuing his second term.
Per the Emerson College poll conducted on April 9 and 10, both Donald Trump and Rick Scott appear poised to defeat their Democratic opponents.
Trump, who carried Florida in 2016 and 2020, has majority support against President Joe Biden.
"51% support Trump, 38% Biden, and 11% are undecided. With the candidate undecided voters lean toward allocated, Trump's overall support increases to 56%, and Biden to 44%," the polling memo notes.
A plurality of Biden voters (32%) back the current President because of opposition to Trump, as compared to 24% who are enthusiastic about the incumbent. An additional 19% are driven by a given issue, and 14% by party loyalty.
Meanwhile, among Trump voters, 31% are driven by issues, 28% by Trump enthusiasm, 16% by opposition to Biden, and 14% by party identification.
Trump's lead suggests that Democratic efforts to expand the map in Florida may be for naught, and that's potentially bad news for likely Senate nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. She is running closer to Scott than Biden is to Trump, but is still behind, with her deficit outside the +/- 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Scott is backed by 45% of respondents, with his presumptive opponent at 38%, and 17% more say they are undecided.
Mucarsel-Powell and the Florida Democratic Party are betting heavily on spotlighting the issue of abortion against Scott. That's made potent by the combination of a looming ban on termination of pregnancies after the sixth week of gestation except in cases of rape, incest, human trafficking and health peril for the mother, and an amendment that would roll back abortion restrictions signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Whether that strategy ultimately narrows the margin remains to be seen, but Floridians will recall Scott's squeaker win against U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson six years ago required a recount to be validated.
"The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (FL SOS)," Emerson says, explaining its methodology.
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