It's qualification week in Florida. On one hand, that's a moment of clerical closure, when candidates formalize they will run for state or local office this cycle. But we'll also almost certainly see some surprises and receive some answers to long-lingering questions about 2024. Just as we asked before federal qualifying, here are questions we want answered between June 10 midday to noon on June 14.
Will trial lawyers field a serious Primary opponent against Tom Leek?
No offense to retired professional wrestler Gerry James, but he's hard to take as a serious plan A for Florida's legal lobby. There's strong evidence that trial lawyers orchestrated and funded some early attack ads targeting Leek for his role in passing sweeping restrictions on lawsuits. The commercials on TV, in the mail and online came from a new political committee called The Truth Matters, chaired by a lawyer at Woolsey Morcom, a Ponte Vedra-based personal injury law firm.
But the only candidate heading into qualification week who was filed against Leek in the deep red district was James, an anti-establishment candidate who waged an underfunded challenge to outgoing Sen. Travis Hutson two years ago. Sure, James overperformed considering the money ratio in the 2022 race, and he's happy to see the ads attacking Leek. But if lawyers really want to knock out Leek, a heavily endorsed, sitting lawmaker, this ain't it.
But on Monday, David Shoar, a candidate tied to that firm, had paperwork show up in state databases as a candidate. That could be the answer for the anti-Leek crowd.
Will Carlos Guillermo Smith walk into a Senate seat?
Right now, the Orlando Democrat, running in Senate District 17, is the only state Senate candidate running for a regularly scheduled election without any opposition filed. That includes a dozen incumbent Senators seeking re-election who all face an opponent. What makes this all the more remarkable was that Smith, a former state lawmaker, was considered Republicans' greatest prize when they overperformed in districts across Florida and knocked off the three-term progressive champion.
Granted, that was a perfect storm and a different seat. Redistricting left the outspoken liberal in a battleground, and Gov. Ron DeSantis' presidential ambitions and hurricane performance tailored some powerful coattails. Now, Smith aims to succeed outgoing Sen. Linda Stewart and in a deep blue seat where Republicans won't waste much money.
But are there really no Democrats willing to take on Smith in a Primary? He does have the support of the Florida Democratic Party and already nailed down labor support, and he boasts the promise of being the first openly gay Latino Senator. Still, a few names churn in the rumor mill. There are a few days left for one to pull the trigger.
Will Randolph Bracy litigate Geraldine Thompson out of her seat?
In a conspicuously pre-qualifying week interview in The Orlando Sentinel, Bracy, a former Senator, raised residency concerns about Sen. Thompson. The Oakland Democrat surprised plenty of people when he quietly challenged Thompson for his old Senate seat, years after she had supported him as a successor the last time she served in the Senate.
But redistricting has changed the lines, and Bracy said Thompson no longer owns property in Senate District 15. Thompson responded by telling the Sentinel she has lived in her daughter's home even as her husband claimed homestead on another property.
State law only requires a candidate to live in a district by the time they take office, but Thompson holds office now. Will Bracy challenge whether the incumbent has errantly served Senate District 15 the past two years and deal a death blow to her re-election bid? We'll likely know if that's his play before qualification week closes.
Will Mack Bernard coast into a Senate seat unopposed?
It's not like the GOP didn't have advance notice. Bernard and Sen. Bobby Powell, a fellow Democrat, have been planning a seat swap for more than a year. Powell hopes to replace Bernard on the Palm Beach Commission and Bernard, a former House member who reaches term limits at County Hall this year, aims to take the Senate District 24 seat Powell is vacating two years ahead of schedule.
Powell announced his resignation in mid-April and called on DeSantis to declare a Special Election for SD 24. The Governor acquiesced May 29, calling an election for the soon-to-be-vacant seat to coincide with this year's Primary and General elections. But while the election dates are the same, the deadline for candidates to qualify is three days shorter: June 11 at noon. And so far, Bernard is the only candidate running.
Will Ron DeSantis find a heavy to take out Randy Fine?
Fine used to be one of DeSantis' biggest cheerleaders, but that all changed in October when the Representative switched his presidential endorsement to support Donald Trump. And he didn't just jump off a sinking ship. The only Jewish Republican in the Legislature put some new cannonball holes in it by lambasting the rising antisemitism in the state, and accusing DeSantis of ignoring it.
Up until then, many wondered if DeSantis would pressure Florida Atlantic University to name Fine as its new President. Fine instead was left to run for an open Senate seat in Senate District 19 that he already had eyes on.
But could DeSantis recruit someone to spoil Fine's front-runner status? He could put his force behind Robyn Hattaway, who has a Mamas For DeSantis-type of background and more than $90,000 cash on hand in her candidate and committee accounts. Or he could bring in a new heavy hitter with high name recognition. But time is ticking.
Will all these Polk County candidates actually qualify for Florida House?
Seriously. Three Republicans (Jennifer Jonsson, Heather McArthur and Shawn McDonough) and one Democrat (Ashley Herrmann) filed to succeed Melony Bell in House District 49. And in House District 48, there's a Democrat (John Hill) and a whopping eight Republicans (Jon Albert, Jerry Carter, Chad Davis, Kenneth Hartpence, Deborah Owens, Amilee Stuckey, Benny Valentin and Randy Wilkinson) filed to follow Sam Garrison into the House. And we still have until Friday at noon for a surprise entry.
That's just quite the contribution to the state coffers if all candidates qualify. If everyone finishes the process, the HD 48 race is on track to have the most crowded field of any legislative race in Florida.
Will a crowded field seek to succeed Mike Beltran?
The sitting Representative surprised everyone less than a week from the qualification deadline by announcing June 7 he would not seek a fourth term in the House. That leaves House District 70 unexpectedly open with days left for prospects to take action.
Immediately, Jessica Harris showed up as a Republican candidate in the state database, coincidentally employing the same campaign treasurer as Beltran. But will other camps jump at the chance to fight for an open seat? Some candidates in Manatee County were ready to run in what seemed a new House seat before Beltran moved districts in 2022. It won't be too shocking if someone smells a fresh opportunity this cycle.
Will Democrats snub their own candidates to support Vicki Lopez?
A Miami Republican, Lopez distinguished herself in her first term as a moderate lawmaker with a talent for getting her bills across the finish line despite voting against her GOP colleagues on headline-grabbing legislation like Florida's six-week abortion ban. It gained her plaudits from both sides of the political aisle, including an endorsement from Miami-Dade Commission Chair Oliver Gilbert III, one of the county's highest-ranking Democrats.
Two Democrats have filed to challenge Lopez after a staffer of Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava entered and then quickly withdrew from contention last month. One is Key Biscayne Democratic Club President Jackie Gross-Kellogg. The other is Miami-Dade Democratic Executive Committee member Matthew Bornstein. It remains to be seen whether the Florida Democratic Party will provide substantive support to either candidate.
Will Democrats field a candidate in every legislative seat as promised?
It was a bold promise in April when Florida Democrats filed to run in every district this cycle. But the state party, usually a model of unfulfilled potential, did manage to qualify someone in every congressional district.
But there are 141 legislative races up this year, as opposed to 28 congressional seats, and there are a couple House districts where the census of cows may rival the number of registered Democrats.
Still, grassroots groups like 90 For 90 have worked to recruit candidates in even the most long shot of seats. Indeed, before the opening of formal qualification, at least one Democratic candidate filed intent to run paperwork with the state in every Senate and House district scheduled for election in 2024, an impressive feat in itself.
The question now will be if they actually qualify (a notary issue knocked a candidate out in 2020). Granted, many of these candidates are making a statement and have no shot at being sworn into the Legislature. But the qualifying deadline may well be one day Democrats can claim more successes than Republicans.
What's up with Torey Alston?
Broward County is wondering what's in the works for Alston, a DeSantis-appointed School Board member who has yet to file to run for his District 2 seat. The deadline to file is noon Friday, and just one candidate is running: Rebecca Thompson, a former social worker and mom of three who hasn't raised more than $10,000 in any three-month fundraising period since she entered the race in September.
Is Alston pushing behind the scenes for the Governor to take over the district, especially if it fails a Florida Department of Education audit of $800 million worth of taxpayer-funded projects approved in 2014? Will Alston, whom DeSantis appointed in August 2022 after a state grand jury report found mismanagement of the funds, angle for a deal to be appointed Superintendent if the state takes over? Or is he just quietly amassing donations in a political committee so he can file at the last minute?
Will Christian Ziegler try to remain a Republican state committeeman?
A nationally watched sex scandal ended Ziegler's tenure as Republican Party of Florida Chair, capped off with a vote to fire him from that post in January. But he technically remains a state committeeman representing Sarasota County on the state party's committee. That's a locally elected position he can't simply be terminated from holding, much like wife Bridget Ziegler could not be fired by fellow Sarasota County School Board members.
But his position is up for re-election this year, and local party leaders say he's expressed that he will run again. So will three other candidates, and it's likely they will bring up a few headlines from the last six months when arguing the Christian Ziegler brand no longer brings more luster than embarrassment to the local party. But who knows? Maybe the seemingly disgraced official isn't done with state politics after all.
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Peter Schorsch, Jacob Ogles and Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics contributed to this report.
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