Former President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott appear on their way to winning Florida by double digits.
That's according to one of the state's top GOP pollsters. Ryan Tyson's The Tyson Group found around 46% of likely General Election voters intend to support Trump in November, while just 36% plan to vote for Democratic incumbent Joe Biden. That's as of June 10. Trump's lead falls outside the poll's 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Scott holds a greater lead in the poll. The incumbent Republican Senator boasts 46% support, while Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has just 33%.
Those results, particularly in the presidential race, run counter to Democratic insistence Florida will be in play this cycle, an argument bolstered by a Fox News recently showing Trump with only a 4-point lead. But Tyson has independently measured the Florida electorate for years, and believes suggestions that the state will swing abruptly toward Democrats isn't consistent with his data or trends.
"Donald Trump has a double-digit lead in Florida. To suggest otherwise ignores the dramatic shift our state has experienced since Trump's last election," he said.
"This sample suggests the former President continues to hold together the coalition that has delivered record ballot margins for Republicans in Florida since 2020, as Trump is closing in on 60% of white voters, winning Hispanics by double digits as well as winning Independents and even females."
His latest survey results also show Gov. Ron DeSantis with 54% job approval compared to 42% disapproval, with his popularity going up with conservatives since he suspended his presidential campaign against Trump.
Meanwhile, Biden's disapproval sits at 56%, with approval at 38%.
"Biden continues to demonstrate lethargy with key segments of his base in Florida, especially African Americans where it fails to break 60% — a problem Charlie Crist experienced throughout our tracking in Florida in 2022," Tyson said.
Moreover, the approval numbers on DeSantis and the disapproval numbers on Biden are intense. About 46% of Florida voters "strongly disapprove" of the President's performance, a plurality of those polled.
For the Republican Governor, the number of those surveyed who "strongly approve" of his performance climbed to 41%, up from just 30% in April.
Regardless, Tyson's team said they built a polling model predicting Democratic enthusiasm exceeding that for former President Barack Obama, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida, during his 2008 landslide win.
"I've read comments suggesting that an unforeseen Democrat turnout wave is headed to the state," Tyson said. "But it will take an even stronger turnout operation than the Obama machine created 10/14 years ago for Democrats to have a respectable margin of defeat, and Biden ain't no Obama. Especially when there are nearly half a million fewer Democrats on the voter rolls in the state when Obama was re-elected.
"Even in our most generous turnout projections for the left, and most pessimistic turnout scenarios for the right, the Democrats are staring down the barrel of an R+9 electorate (or more), putting Biden in a 12-point-plus hole."
Tyson pollsters said the truth is that this just isn't the purple Florida of legend anymore. Predicting high Democratic turnout and lukewarm Republican turnout doesn't change that the GOP has a growing edge in registered voters, nearing 1 million.
Democrats still had the advantage in registration four years ago when the last Presidential Election was held. Republicans never held an edge in state history until November of 2021.
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