The winners of Tuesday's Primary have the potential to make Hillsborough County Commission even redder, or allow Democrats to have a fighting chance to influence the county's $9 billion budget.
Four Republicans and three Democrats have divided the board since 2022. But previous elections saw a bluer and bluer county. Democrats gained a 4-3 advantage in 2018 and grew that to a 5-2 majority in 2020. If Republicans hold onto their seats in November and take outgoing District 6 Commissioner Pat Kemp's seat, the GOP's advantage would return to its 2016 position, with a 5-2 majority.
But evolving politics and redistricted areas mean there's no sure thing for either party.
District 2
Ken Hagan, one of Tampa Bay's most powerful politicians and the Commission's longest-serving Republican, is often the board's swing vote. And while he's likely to win in District 2 on Tuesday, November could be another story.
Redistricting has turned the seat covering areas around New Tampa and the University of South Florida into a battleground.
As of July, there were 70,610 registered Republicans, outnumbering Democrats in the district by just 761 voters. No-party voters account for a little over 59,000.
Hagan, who has held the historically red seat since 2018, has outraised Republican challenger Melissa Nordbeck, a land use activist, by more than $200,000.
Democrat Patricia Alonzo, who is unopposed on Tuesday's ticket, is backed by Ruth's List as a pro-choice candidate. With abortion on the minds of many voters, she could be an appealing choice to those who are pro-Amendment 4.
District 4
Christine Miller was eyeing Kemp's seat at the start of her Commission campaign, but now she's getting comfy in District 4 and is the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination.
Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her in June to fill the position Michael Owen left to run for House District 70. The Greater Plant City Chamber of Commerce CEO is vastly outraising her opponents with $124,000 mostly unspent, along with $427,000-plus in her political committee, Friends of Christine Miller. Her Republican challenger, real estate broker Cody Powell, has spent most of his $43,000.
Along with DeSantis, Miller has endorsements from Republican Sens. Danny Burgess and Jay Collins and four GOP Representatives.
Powell touts a "pro-God, pro-Trump" platform, with the first priority on his website being: "Ban woke books from schools and libraries and stop the transgender indoctrination."
Democrats Jonathon Chavez, a recent University of South Florida graduate, and Hillsborough County Black Chamber of Commerce President Nicole Payne are fighting to make the November ballot in the heavily red district. They're also up against no-party candidate Matthew Taylor, also known as standup comedian Matt the Welder. Neither of the three has raised more than $14,000 and each has spent most of their funds.
District 6
Former Rep. Sean Shaw is primed to succeed Kemp if Democrats can keep the countywide seat. He's been dominating fundraising in this race, and with Cynthia Fuentes and Mark Nash out, his only opponent Tuesday is first-time candidate and library worker Joseph Ryan Taylor.
Shaw's donors to his $146,000 campaign fund include former Reps. Ben Diamond and Ed Narain, former Commissioner Betty Castor, former City Attorney Jim Shimberg, strip club magnate and community activist Joe Redner, political consultant Justin Day, Leadership Florida Chair Ron Christaldi and former Florida CFO Alex Sink. His PC, Friends of Sean Shaw has raised more than $88,000.
Taylor, meanwhile, has spent nearly all of his $8,000 raised.
On the Republican side, longtime county firefighter Chris Boles has outraised but not outspent former Commission and Council candidate Jim Davison. Boles has spent about $22,000 of his more than $83,000. Davison is going all in, with about $8,000 of his $48,000 contributions left.
Boles' priorities include better funding the Sheriff's Office and first responders, lowering taxes for seniors and banning zero lot line development. His endorsements include Reps. Danny Alvarez, Karen Gonzalez Pittman and Traci Koster, as well as Commissioners Hagan and Miller. Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister and several police and firefighter groups have also backed Boles.
Davison is focused on budget control, improving roads, establishing a citizen budget committee, and increasing jobs to prevent inflation. His biggest endorsement is from former County Commissioner Stacy White.
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