Polls are snapshots in time, goes one of the oldest clichés in politics. And at this point, we have more than one snapshot of a potential photo finish in the Senate race.
Just 3 points separate incumbent Republican Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, per a Public Policy Polling survey of the state conducted Aug. 21-22 for the Clean and Prosperous Energy PAC.
When Libertarian Feena Bonoan is added to the mix, getting 2% of the vote, Scott leads 46% to 43%, with a pivotal 10% undecided.
Without the spoiler included, Scott leads 48% to 45%, with 7% undecided.
Should Mucarsel-Powell get the bulk of undecided voters, she may have what it takes to overpower the wealthiest man in the Senate, who has proven to be a prodigious self-funder in campaigns in 2010 and 2018, the first times he ran for Governor and Senate, respectively.
However, there are caveats. Not least among them is that Mucarsel-Powell is still a relatively unknown quantity for half the voters. So even though she is above water in terms of favorability, with 29% approval and 20% disapproval, she is still undefined.
Voters also say they aren't seeing her ads, which were on television leading up to the uncompetitive Democratic Primary last week.
Only 18% say they have spotted her commercials, with 71% saying no and 12% unsure.
Scott is skeptical about polling, as he told Florida Politics earlier this month.
"We're going to have a big win. If you look at all my races, the polls have generally been way off," Scott said in Jacksonville. "In all three of my races, polls said I was going to lose … because they're not accurate."
Previous polling of a potential race between Mucarsel-Powell and Scott has been all over the place.
The latest survey from Florida Atlantic University's PolCom Lab shows Scott with a marginal 47% to 43% lead over his Democratic opponent.
Polling from the Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) shows Scott ahead of Mucarsel-Powell by 10 points (52-42%) with 7% of voters undecided.
Other Florida Atlantic University polls showed a 16-point race and a 2-point difference, and a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll showed a 15-point gap earlier this Summer.
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