Last Call – A prime-time read of what's going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Vice President Kamala Harris has led in most recent polls, but the latest measure from The New York Times/Sienna College shows former President Donald Trump with the advantage.
Conducted Sept. 3-6, the poll found Trump with an inside-the-margin lead, 48%-47%. Trump's support includes a majority of men (56%) and voters in age brackets comprised of voters over 45 years old.
Harris, meanwhile, has 53% support among women and carries a majority of voters under 45. She also leads among Hispanic voters (55%-41%) and Black voters (78%-14%), although the latter margin falls short of what President Joe Biden managed in 2020.
When third-party candidates are included, Trump's lead goes up a notch, 47%-45%, with Libertarian Chase Oliver drawing 2% of the vote and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1% and 3% undecided.
Undecided voters were as likely to say they were leaning toward Trump as they are to Harris (20%-20%) with 59% of fence-sitters unwilling or unable to give a firm answer on their current feelings.
While Trump appears to have recaptured the lead nationally, Harris is faring better in most swing states. She holds a three-point advantage in Wisconsin — the largest gap of the seven battlegrounds this cycle — as well as a two-point lead in Michigan and one-point edge in Pennsylvania. The candidates are tied in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
The NYT/Sienna poll has a sample size of 1,695 registered voters and a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Evening Reads
—"The angry, divisive fallout of the Donald Trump shooting in Butler County" via Tim Craig of The Washington Post
—"Trump's long history of belittling women on the debate stage" via Jess Bidgood of The New York Times
—"Hypocrisy, spinelessness, and the triumph of Trump" via Mark Leibovich of The Atlantic
—"Major outlets change standards for hacked emails, protect Trump" via Judd Legum of Popular Information
—"The mistakes of 2019 could cost Kamala Harris the election" via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—"The guessing game over Harris' foreign policy" via Joshua Keating of Vox
—"Conservative activist launches $1bn crusade to 'crush' liberal America" via the Financial Times
—"The Electoral College bias has returned with a vengeance" via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—"Ron DeSantis defends use of election police in abortion petition probe" via Lawrence Mower of Romy Ellenbogen of the Tampa Bay Times
—"DeSantis demands Republicans publicly oppose amendment to add abortion rights to Florida Constitution" via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
—"9/11 used to be off limits. Now Gen Z has turned it into a meme" via David Mack of Rolling Stone
Quote of the Day
"It just seems that if there were any fraud allegations, those would have been uncovered much sooner. I think what's really happening is that these extremists are feeling like their backs are against the ropes."
— House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell, on the Amendment 4 petition probe.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Gov. Ron DeSantis gets a Witch Hunt for doubling down on the state's 11th-hour look into supposed petition fraud.
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz will take a Bubble after his dig on Harris' pre-debate strategy.
The team at Rubin Turnbull gets a High Five for its $2.7 million second-quarter haul — a tally high enough for a Top 5 ranking in Q2.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Hanging around: Rays open series in Philadelphia
Somehow, the Tampa Bay Rays are still in contention in the American League wildcard race as they open a three-game series in Philadelphia against the National League East-leading Phillies (6:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Sun).
The Rays (71-72) are five games out of the final wildcard spot with 19 games remaining. It's a longshot for Tampa Bay to make the postseason, but despite trading away most of the team's veteran players, the Rays have hovered around the .500 mark in the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay has won their last two series, taking two of three from both the Minnesota Twins and the Baltimore Orioles. Now, they face Philadelphia (85-58), a team with the second-best record in the NL.
The Twins hold the final spot in the AL wildcard race entering this evening's games with the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners three and a half games back and the Boston Red Sox four games behind. No team in the American League has been particularly hot. Only the Texas Rangers have won more than six of their last ten games (7-3). If the trend continues, it's likely the team that gets hot over the final three weeks of the season will make up ground in the postseason race.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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