NBC News national politics reporter Matt Dixon, formerly the bureau head for POLITICO Florida who helped found the outlet's Tallahassee operation, has a book out later this year about Florida politics and, specifically, the rise of Gov. Ron DeSantis.
That includes the burgeoning (and brutal) rivalry between himself and former President Donald Trump. The book has been highly anticipated, as it should be considering how much national attention is given to DeSantis ahead of an expected presidential announcement, possibly next month.
However, considering recent trends, the overall premise might be in danger of becoming outdated, which would serve as a disappointment on a book that was extensively reported.
The first think pieces of the 2024 election are already all but declaring the GOP Primary already over.
A Washington Post piece in late March sourced anonymous DeSantis insiders who were already questioning the viability of a DeSantis campaign against a Trump machine.
At the time, Trump was already pushing hard against DeSantis, having frequently referred to him as Ron DeSanctimonious and, if backdoor conversations are to be believed, Meatball Ron.
DeSantis further alienated the Trump cheering squad by criticizing Trump's response to the COVID-19 pandemic and invoking the then-potential criminal charges against Trump related to hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Then, polls already showed Trump gaining momentum over DeSantis, some by well into the double digits.
And that was before Trump was indicted over the hush money allegations, which Trump denies.
Perhaps if it were anyone else, being the first current or former President to face criminal charges might have a chilling effect on a presidential campaign. But this isn't just anyone; it's Donald J. Trump and his supporters don't seem to care one bit whether his middle initial turns out to actually stand for "jailed."
In fact, polls since his indictment have shown Trump with a commanding lead over DeSantis, even if Florida's Governor still lands solidly in the No. 2 spot. An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted March 31 to April 1 shows Trump with an overwhelming 57% support, while only 24% back DeSantis in that poll.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey taken March 31 through April 3 found Trump with 48% backing, compared to just 19% for DeSantis.
The breakdown may just be in DeSantis himself. As Wide World of News creator Mark Halperin described in a Tuesday newsletter, DeSantis seems to have an "inability to do some of the very basics." That includes "show up on time, be gracious, make small talk, ask after the relatives of people he meets, tell humanizing stories, be self-effacing, laugh, connect."
Yet by Halperin's observations, and through conversations with others who have also taken the time to observe, DeSantis misses those opportunities. His example, from a book signing event in Pennsylvania, notes one such observation about DeSantis ignoring the crowd, which braved bad weather to be there, had his staff bark orders not to take photos and didn't bother to make small talk with anyone.
A reader told Halperin DeSantis not only failed to bring enough books for everyone who showed up to the event advertising free books, they said DeSantis wasn't a very good storyteller and missed vital opportunities to connect with Pennsylvania voters even though he had a perfect in — his farther was from a steel town just down the Ohio River from Pittsburgh.
Yet DeSantis continues to command national headlines and airtime and is consistently spoken about as the only viable — or at least the only likely viable — option to Trump.
Perhaps that's because DeSantis has shown an ability to reconfigure when things aren't looking good.
He went from a long-shot candidate for Governor in 2018 to a razor-thin victor with, as Trump likes to point out, a little help from the then Commander in Chief. Then he turned that razor-thin margin into a walloping against former U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist last year.
Part of that success relied on DeSantis' response to the pandemic, and his ability to tout the "free state of Florida" as a place where people wouldn't have their livelihoods threatened. He also had education on his side, with parental rights issues, critical race theory and other "woke" issues feeding his base.
But the time to ride COVID-19 freedom coattails may long be gone and the education/culture war stuff isn't uniquely DeSantis — Trump can claim that mantle just as easily.
So that leaves us scared. Not just Dixon, all of us.
We're all really afraid of what happens when Daddy Ron comes back from a failed 2024 campaign embarrassed — Jeb Bush-level embarrassed.
Already, DeSantis has shown he has little patience to play nice with those who have aggrieved him. I'm looking at you Disney, New College, local governments and 50 other things.
Right now, DeSantis is still theoretically trying to impress people. If this is what ambitious Ron looks like, how terrifying will aggrieved Ron be?
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