A new national poll suggests that Nov. 5 will be a dreary day for United States voters, most of whom dislike both Joe Biden and Donald Trump — but not enough to vote third-party.
For now, Trump holds a 2-percentage-point edge over the incumbent.
Researchers from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (UNF PORL) spoke by phone with 745 likely voters chosen at random from a voter file April 8-20.
The survey was weighted by age, educational attainment, partisan registration, race and ethnicity, sex and geographic strata to match the population of the registered U.S. electorate.
It had a 4.2% margin of error.
Asked whom they would support at the ballot box, 47% of respondents said they would vote for Trump compared to 45% who said they backed Biden.
Four percent planned to vote for another candidate, while 3% said they were unsure or refused to answer and 2% said they didn't plan to weigh in on the presidential race.
Among voters who cast ballots in 2020, a far larger share of Biden voters — 10% — said they were switching sides this year than Trump voters. Six percent of past Biden voters reported that they plan to instead vote for Trump this year. Another 4% said they would vote for another candidate.
Meanwhile, just 2% of Trump voters said they would instead vote for the incumbent President.
Trump's ongoing legal issues should impact the election results as well. Asked whether a conviction of Trump in any of his pending criminal cases would sway how this year, 67% of respondents said no. Twenty-four percent said they'd be less inclined to vote for him, while 7% said a conviction would make them more likely to do so.
Michael Binder, Director of UNF PORL, said a factor that could "dramatically impact the election" is the 9% of Trump voters who said they'd be less likely to cast ballots for him if he's convicted.
Both Biden and Trump remain underwater in approval. Just 39% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the President compared to 59% who said they viewed him unfavorably. Trump fared slightly better, with 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable ratings.
Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who received an average of 13% support across five national polls released in March and April, received a net neutral favorability in the UNF PORL poll with 35% favorable and 35% unfavorable.
But just six months before Election Day, 31% of respondents said they didn't have a strong enough opinion of him either way or refused to answer the question.
Binder noted that while a substantial portion of respondents — 15% — dislike Biden and Trump, Kennedy shouldn't count them as probable supporters.
"It's worth noting that only 11% of these double-haters said they were voting for a third candidate, with 43% indicating they would vote for Biden, and 30% going to Trump," he said.
Pollsters found that whatever edge Biden may have in hate-defying support may be nullified by an enthusiasm imbalance between his and Trump's supporters. Among the 66% of respondents who said they were somewhat or very enthusiastic about the coming election, Trump's voters were the most passionate.
"Enthusiasm is highest among 2024 Trump voters and, unsurprisingly, lowest among third-party and undecided voters," Binder said. "A whopping 40% of self-reported Biden voters in 2024 are not at all enthusiastic about voting for him — which could lead to a turnout problem for Democrats in the Fall."
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