The fight to flip the Hillsborough County Commission is officially underway as the last of Tuesday's Primary votes are counted.
Incumbent Republican Commissioner Ken Hagan will head to the General Election for District 2; new Commissioner Christine Miller came out on top of the GOP Primary for District 4, while Nicole Payne emerged victorious from the Democratic Primary; and Sean Shaw easily won the Democratic Primary for District 6 while Chris Boles won the GOP Primary.
November will determine if the Commission grows a deeper shade of red or if Democrats can keep their fighting chance to influence the county's $9 billion budget.
Four Republicans and three Democrats have divided the board since 2022. If Republicans hold onto their seats in November and take Kemp's outgoing District 6 seat, the GOP's advantage would return to its 2016 position, with a 5-2 majority.
District 2
Incumbent Hagan breezed past his Republican challenger, Melissa Nordbeck with more than 78% of the vote.
Historically, Hagan has sailed through elections, both Primary and General. And while the November General Election may prove to be much the same for the long-time Commissioner, trends and redistricting mean it's possible it could be little tougher this time around. He faces Democrat Patricia Alonzo, who was unopposed on Tuesday's ticket.
Hagan has held the historically red seat since 2018. But redistricting has turned the district covering areas around New Tampa and the University of South Florida into a potential battleground.
As of July, there were 70,610 registered Republicans, outnumbering Democrats in the district by just 761 voters. No-party voters account for a little over 59,000.
Alonzo is backed by Ruth's List as a pro-choice candidate. With abortion on the minds of many voters, she could be an appealing choice to those who are pro-Amendment 4.
District 4
Miller can stay cozy for now in the seat Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to in June. The Greater Plant City Chamber of Commerce CEO defeated real estate broker Cody Powell with more than 68% of the vote.
Next, she takes on Hillsborough County Black Chamber of Commerce President Payne, who beat Janathon Chavez, a recent University of South Florida graduate, with more than 63% of the vote in the Democratic Primary.
Also in the running in November is no-party candidate Matthew Taylor, also known as standup comedian Matt the Welder.
Miller heads into the General Election battle with $124,000 in campaign funds mostly unspent, along with more than $427,000 in her political committee, Friends of Christine Miller. Payne will need to ramp up fundraising after spending most of her less than $14,000 thousand.
District 6
Former state Rep. Shaw is gearing up to succeed Pat Kemp in hopes of keeping the countywide seat blue. He crushed first time candidate and library worker Joseph Ryan Taylor with more than 80% of the vote.
Shaw had about $135,000 left between his campaign account and affiliated political committee as of Friday.
Longtime county firefighter Chris Boles is gunning to flip the seat after defeating former Commission and City Council candidate Jim Davison with 59% of the vote.
Boles has about $61,000 left on-hand heading into the General Election.
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