Last Call – A prime-time read of what's going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum is decelerating, according to a new ActiVote poll.
The survey, conducted Aug. 25-Sept. 2, found Harris' lead has seen a "significant" reduction over the past few weeks and now stands at 50.8%-49.2% in a two-way race.
At her zenith, Harris led Donald Trump by about five percentage points in ActiVote's tracking poll, about three times the current 1.6% spread and well within the poll's +/- 3.1% margin of error.
ActiVote's poll measures use the last 1,000 responses from likely presidential election voters. As soon as none of those responses overlap with the previously released poll, ActiVote publishes new results.
According to the pollster, Harris Poll numbers improved steadily for the first month after Biden dropped out, then hovered at around five points for two weeks. ActiVote said her backslide has occurred over just five days.
While ActiVote's polling strategy is unique, the results reflect trends some prognosticators have picked up on — namely, Harris' post-convention "bounce" has been muted at best and nonexistent at worst.
However, she's still ahead in major polling averages, with FiveThirtyEight pegging the race at 47.1%-43.9% and RealClearPolitics showing a much closer 48.1%-46.2%.
Evening Reads
—"A political Summer like no other — and the photographs that defined it" via Dan Balz of The Washington Post
—"The 28 must-see lines from Donald Trump's interview with Mark Levin" via Chris Cillizza of So What
—"Trump's incredible 'transgender thing'" via Elaine Godfrey of The Atlantic
—"Murderer whose life sentence was commuted by Trump convicted of domestic violence" via Judd Legum of Popular Information
—"There's no 'normal' in this election" via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—"The state of the 2024 race, explained in seven charts" via Nicole Narea of Vox
—"These Republicans are pushing for abortion rights" via Laura Kusisto of The Wall Street Journal
—"Is Pennsylvania going 'red'? Well, not really." via Dave Trotter of Voting Trend
—"What does it mean to be a 'conservative' these days?" via Chris Cillizza of So What
—"The U.S. Navy is going all in on Starlink" via Jared Keller of WIRED
—"Activists charged with pushing Russian propaganda go on trial in Florida" via Patricia Mazzei of The New York Times
Quote of the Day
"This morning was probably a rough morning for Florida State Seminole fans after last night. You know, we want all the teams to do well. And I also know we've got a lot of (University of Florida) fans in this area, and Saturday was not the best day for that either."
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on disappointing starts for the Gators and Seminoles football teams.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Pour the Governor, Commissioner of Education Manny Diaz, Jr. and State University System Chancellor Ray Rodrigues a Penicillin for reiterating the state's financial commitment to nursing education programs. Salud!
Mark your calendars — the lineup of committee weeks ahead of the 2025 Legislative Session has been announced, and they're starting during the holiday season. It's only September, but it's never too early to prep yourself for December by running through this list of the 12 Drinks of Christmas.
It's never a bad time to order FRLA CEO Carol Dover a Prairie's Hall of Fame Ginger. Still, it's especially appropriate now that she's been inducted into VISIT FLORIDA's ring of honor.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Tiafoe plays in U.S. Open quarters tonight
Orlando's Frances Tiafoe plays in the men's singles quarterfinals at the U.S. Open tonight at Arthur Ashe Stadium (7 p.m. ESPN).
Tiafoe, the 20th seed, faces Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov, the ninth-seeded player in the draw. Tiafoe defeated fellow American and 13th-seeded Ben Shelton in the third round, then dispatched Australia's Alexei Popyrin, the 28th seed in the fourth round.
This is Tiafoe's fourth appearance in a Grand Slam quarterfinal. In 2019, he lost in the quarters of the Australian Open. In 2022, he won his quarterfinal match at the U.S. Open, beating Andrey Rublev before falling in the semifinals to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. Last year, he also advanced to the quarterfinals in Queens before falling to Shelton.
Tiafoe has faced Dimitrov four times, with the Bulgarian winning three of the previous meetings.
If Tiafoe advances through to the finals, he will have the chance to be the first American man to win a Grand Slam singles championship since Andy Roddick won the U.S. Open in 2003.
Roddick's win ended a stretch of American wins at Grand Slam events. From 1989 through 2003, an American won at least one men's Grand Slam event every year. Pete Sampras, who retired in 2002, won 14 Grand Slams in that time.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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