Miami-Dade's voter rolls may be shifting redder, but the county at large still prefers the Democratic candidate atop the ticket over her Republican opponent, new polling shows.
A survey conducted late last month by Sarasota-based SEA Polling & Strategic Design found that Vice President Kamala Harris has a net 10-point approval rating in Miami-Dade, while ex-President Donald Trump is underwater.
SEA surveyed 400 Miami-Dade voters by phone, text and email Aug. 27-30. The firm modeled the poll with a turnout of 41% Democrat, 36% Republican and 23% NPA and a racial breakdown of 58% Hispanic, 20% White, 17% Black and 5% other.
The poll had a 4.9% margin of error.
The firm found Harris at 50% favorability and 40% unfavorability. For Trump, it's 50% unfavorable, 46% favorable. Pollsters asked about Ron DeSantis too. The result: Florida's Governor is at an even 46-46% in voter sentiment.
In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the county by 7 points. DeSantis won there two years later by an 11-point margin.
SEA's polling results come on the heels of a survey Democratic consultant Christian Ulvert's EDGE Communications firm shared Wednesday that showed Harris with an 18-point lead among likely voters in Palm Beach County.
It also comes less than a week after a survey of 500 likely Miami-Dade voters by Miami-based Inquire LLC produced markedly different results.
The Inquire poll, commissioned by Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Cabrera, a Republican State Committeeman and Trump ally who ran the former President's 2020 election effort in Florida, found both that county voters view both candidates positively. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they viewed Harris favorably compared to 45% who said the opposite. For Trump, it was 48% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
The poll, conducted on the last day of the Democratic National Convention to capture peak enthusiasm for Harris' candidacy, also found the two candidates were in a dead heat with 47% support apiece.
As of Aug. 1, Miami-Dade had 514,308 voters registered as Democrats, 458,218 registered as Republicans and 472,407 with no party affiliation. The remaining 29,132 voters belonged to a third-party group.
Since August 2022, Democrats have lost nearly 62,000 voters in Miami-Dade, while 11,000 no-party voters either left the county or joined a party. Republicans, meanwhile, gained 25,000 voters, county voter records show.
Statewide, Republicans now hold a more than 1 million-voter advantage over Democrats. Accordingly, several recent polls show Trump leading Harris by 4-7 points in Florida.
The General Election is on Nov. 5.
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