The race for House District 60 is expected to be one of the most competitive Florida House races this cycle, with a popular incumbent seeking re-election, and a well-known challenger threatening.
State Rep. Lindsay Cross, a Democrat, faces St. Petersburg City Council member Ed Montanari in the Nov. 5 General Election after neither faced opposition in last month's Primary. The race pits an environmental scientist in Cross against a moderate Republican who, for the past eight years, has served as the only Republican on the St. Pete City Council. They're running in what has been a reliably blue district, but demographics show a path for the GOP.
Democrats enjoy a voter registration advantage of a little more than 3,000 voters, with 40,285 registered Democrats compared to 37,248 Republicans, according to the Pinellas County Supervisor of Election's most recent district voter registration data from July. That's an advantage for Cross of a little less than 3 percentage points.
But those numbers include only active voters. When counting inactive voters, the advantage for Democrats — and by proxy, Cross — increases to about 6 percentage points, or about 6,000 voters.
Inactive voters are eligible to vote.
Voters are declared inactive if there is reason to believe their address has changed (usually through information provided from the U.S. Postal Service when a person provides change-of-address information) and they don't respond to a request for updated information, or if the voter has not voted in the past two federal General Elections.
A 2023 law toughened voter roll maintenance requirements for local Supervisors of Elections, which led to nearly 1 million voters statewide being moved from active to inactive status. It imposed the two-election requirement to move voters to the inactive list.
When looking at only active voters, trends in HD 60 have been shifting away from Democrats.
A look at historic voter registration data for the district available on the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections website shows that in 2020, the last Presidential Election year, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6 percentage points. That advantage is now below 3.
But the trend cannot be entirely attributed to the district becoming more red. The number of active voters in the district is lower now than it was in 2020, despite population growth. And the number of inactive voters has grown every election cycle, with 7,238 voters on the inactive rolls four years ago, 12,789 in 2022, and 27,260 this year. (The district in 2020 was House District 68; it became HD 60 in 2022 as a result of redistricting.)
Cross' campaign rejects the notion that the district is trending toward the GOP.
"The insinuation that only active voters count is categorically incorrect," Cross Campaign Manager Will Shedden said. "The 60th District is trending away from Republicans, and Representative Cross led all statewide Democrats in her district because she listens and she fights on their side."
Matt Isbell of MCI Maps also released an analysis of 2022 voting trends showing the district has stayed plenty blue, and in some cases went more blue. For U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, voters in the district rejected him by nearly 2 percentage points more in 2022 than in 2016. In the Governor's race, which saw a bludgeoning of Charlie Crist by Gov. Ron DeSantis and led a massive statewide red wave that cycle, HD 60 stayed blue, even with a 10-point swing toward the right.
An internal poll from Cross' campaign also shows a big advantage for the incumbent Democrat, with a double-digit lead over Montanari. Her 12-point lead in that poll overperforms the top of the ticket, where just 43% of respondents favored a generic Democrat, compared to the 50% who said they support Cross.
Still, Republicans see an opening in the district.
"This is a very winnable race for us," Montanari said, pointing to active voter rolls. "Voter registration is rapidly trending in our direction, and I am proud to have the complete backing of the Florida House Majority Campaign Committee and many elected officials in Pinellas County."
Montanari is a formidable foe who appears to be an ideal Republican to run in a left-leaning battleground.
He has been elected to two terms on the City Council where, even as a registered Republican, the city charter calls on him to run as a nonpartisan. In his re-election race in 2019, Montanari faced a registered Democrat whose campaign banked on tying Montanari to then-President Donald Trump. It failed miserably.
The attempt not only didn't work, it backfired. Those who worked with Montanari knew he was nothing like the Trump brand of Republican and all but one of his colleagues on the Council — all Democrats — endorsed his re-election campaign.
And Montanari has kept his campaign platform free of any rhetoric that could turn off moderate voters, focusing instead on "housing, crime, inflation and out-of-control insurance rates," according to his campaign rollout in October.
His campaign website also touts Montanari's commitment to "people over politics" and lists several priority areas, including affordable housing, an issue that appeals to voters regardless of political ideology.
"We know that voters are concerned about property insurance, housing affordability, public safety and inflation," he said. "Everything in our daily lives is more expensive and frankly, we can't afford more of the same lack of leadership from our state representative in Tallahassee. We need someone who can work with leadership and pass legislation to help people."
But while Montanari's website, talking points and track record gush bipartisan appeal, his endorsements might not.
His highest-profile backer is Daniel Perez, a state Representative who is the Speaker-elect. There's also a bevy of conservative support, including from Republican state Sen. Nick DiCeglie; Republican state Reps. Kim Berfield, Linda Chaney and Berny Jacques; Pinellas County State Attorney Bruce Bartlett; Pinellas Clerk of Court Ken Burke; Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri; Pinellas Tax Collector and local GOP Chair Adam Ross; Public Defender Sara Mollo; Pinellas Tax Collector Charles Thomas; Pinellas Property Appraiser Mike Twitty; Pinellas County Commissioners Chris Latvala, Dave Eggers and Brian Scott; Pinellas School Board member Stephanie Meyer; former state Sen. Jeff Brandes; and former St. Pete Mayor Bill Foster.
This will be Montanari's first campaign for partisan office, and it comes at a time of marked political polarization. On one hand, he needs to appeal to Republican voters, many of whom might not appreciate a moderate campaign. On the other hand, the district is home to more than 30,000 active voters who aren't affiliated with a political party, plus another nearly 11,000 who are on the inactive rolls. The unaffiliated voters could make or break the race for either Cross or Montanari.
Neither candidate is taking a win for granted.
"Our team is energized as we enter this campaign's critical final months. Campaigns are about momentum. We feel it when we are out in the community going door-to-door. The energy for change is real and the voters appreciate that I'm focused on common sense solutions that help everyday people," Montanari said.
Cross, meanwhile, is confident she'll hold her seat, but is putting in the work to ensure it happens.
"I feel great about the race and am working hard to ensure victory in November. I'm an aggressive fundraiser, outraising my opponent. I've qualified by petition and have knocked thousands of doors. I know what the people in the district care about because I engage with them in their neighborhoods, at their community centers, and at public events," she said.
Cross is, indeed, outraising Montanari, an impressive feat considering he has also been a prolific fundraiser in his City Council races. Cross has raised more than $431,000, as of Aug. 15, between her campaign and affiliated political committee, Moving Pinellas Forward. Montanari, meanwhile, has raised more than $315,000 for the race between his campaign and political committee, Friends of Ed Montanari.
Both have enjoyed significant in-kind help, too, with more than $55,000 for Cross and nearly the same for Montanari, mostly from their respective political parties. That buy-in shows just how much each party is banking on a win.
Cross is also leaning into the power of incumbency, pointing to her record in Tallahassee.
"My record speaks for itself. I've passed policies around affordable housing and public health and I've brought back millions in resources to the district to improve our infrastructure, public safety, water quality, and arts," Cross said.
Cross filed 12 appropriations requests in this year's Legislative Session, with the top ask for expansion of the Mahaffey Theater in downtown St. Pete, a nearly $1.8 million request.
And with recent news of a controversial plan to build golf courses, pickleball courts, large-footprint lodges and frisbee golf courses in several Florida state parks, Cross is also flexing her muscle as an environmental scientist, penning a letter to the Department of Environmental Protection calling the proposal "too large and too risky." She later sent a fundraising email on the issue.
"With our state parks under attack and our neighborhoods flooding, it matters more than ever to have an experienced environmental scientist in the Legislature," Cross told Florida Politics.
Cross is also hoping to benefit from Amendment 4, a ballot initiative this November that, if approved, would enshrine abortion protections in the Florida Constitution. Democrats are hoping the measure will help drive voter turnout, and if it does, some of those inactive voters could find themselves becoming once again active.
But Montanari sees an opening as someone without a record in the state capital.
"As an outsider, I will bring new ideas and hold the politicians accountable to make things more affordable," he said.
Only time will tell whether voters will buy into the "outsider" argument, or if Cross' résumé will earn her another term.
But one thing is certain, with Democrats trying to claw away the Republican supermajority status in both the House and Senate, the HD 60 race is a must win for the party, and therefore Cross.
If Montanari pulls out a win, it would be a feather in the GOP cap.
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