Thursday, May 30, 2024

Internal poll shows Daniella Levine Cava with dominant lead in Miami-Dade Mayor’s race

Internal poll shows Daniella Levine Cava with dominant lead in Miami-Dade Mayor's race

Jesse Scheckner

May 30

Miami-Dade voters like Mayor Daniella Levine Cava more than any other popular candidate on the 2024 ballot, and an overwhelming share of them will vote for her re-election, new polling from her campaign suggests.

A survey this month by Levine Cava's senior campaign adviser, Christian Ulvert, shows her with a 42-percentage-point lead over her closest competitor in the race, Miami Lakes Mayor Manny Cid.

That finding conflicts with the results of a poll Cid's campaign also conducted this month.

Fifty-three percent of respondents to Ulvert's poll say they're voting for Levine Cava, a Democrat and Miami-Dade's first woman and Jewish Mayor.

Eleven percent support Cid, while 10% back social media influencer Alex Otaola and 2% prefer ex-Surfside Mayor Shlomo Danzinger — all Republicans.

Ulvert reported surveying 1,792 likely Miami-Dade voters May 15-20. Democrats hold a 6.5-point lead over Republicans in the county; however, he modeled the poll with +5 Democratic voter participation to reflect "turnout trends in presidential election cycles."

That augmentation could be negated — or doubled — by the poll's 4.8-percentage-point margin of error.

Levine Cava's advantage among voters is more pronounced when counting only those who have made up their minds in the race. Among decided voters, 70% side with her compared to 15% who align with Cid, 13% who back Otaola and 2% who choose Danzinger.

Though most candidates' platforms reveal their political inclinations, the Mayor's race is technically nonpartisan, meaning all candidates will face one another in the Aug. 20 Primary Election. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote to win outright, the top two vote-getters will compete in a runoff culminating in the General Election on Nov. 5.

Levine Cava holds a nearly 60% favorability score in the county — more than Joe Biden (50%), Kamala Harris (45%), Ron DeSantis (41%) and Donald Trump (40%) — Ulvert's poll found.

Fifty-eight percent of Miami-Dade voters also approve of the Mayor's job performance, compared to 25% who disapprove and 17% who are neutral on the matter.

Of note, Ulvert's survey finds Biden holds an 11-point lead over Trump, with 51% of likely voters saying they plan to support the President in November compared to 39% who want to send Trump back to the White House.

Polling this month by conservative Miami consulting firm Dark Horse Strategies, which is working on Cid's campaign, determined that Levine Cava doesn't have the voter support necessary to avoid a runoff against him.

Unlike Ulvert's survey, Dark Horse Strategies President Emilio Antunez predicted an overshare of Republican voters in the Primary because of a crowded and partisan Sheriff's race in which the GOP side is far more competitive.

Both polls omitted three candidates from their questions: Democratic trapeze artist Miguel "el Skipper" Quintero, who is suing the county over permitting disputes at his home-based business; Republican actor Carlos Garín, who previously mounted unsuccessful bids for Congress and the Miami-Dade Commission; and independent cargo and transportation executive Eddy Rojas.