Last Call – A prime-time read of what's going down in Florida politics.
Ed. Note — Sunburn will be taking tomorrow morning off. Don't worry; the morning read of what's hot in Florida politics will return to your inbox on Thursday. Thanks for your support, and please, stay safe.
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First Shot
New polling from FAU PolCom shows that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat.
The poll, conducted jointly with Mainstreet Research USA, by the Republican nominee and his likely – but still unofficial – Democratic opponent are tied at 46% among U.S. voters. With third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the mix, Harris holds a one-point lead over Trump.
The neck-and-neck race represents a major shift in the race. Rank-and-file Democrats and big-time donors alike had an almost Laodicean attitude over the final month of President Joe Biden's re-election campaign.
In the week since he exited the race, Harris has been gathering support and fundraising at a breakneck pace, cracking the aura of inevitability surrounding Trump as recently as his party's convention.
Harris holds a firm lead among women voters (49%-42%), Black voters (67%-22%), and Hispanic voters (54%-36%). Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris 45% to 36% among voters aged 18 to 35.
In the new poll, Trump has a higher-than-usual favorability rating, with one in three voters saying he is "strongly favorable" and another 16% saying he is at least "somewhat favorable."
Meanwhile, his running mate appears to be weighing him down, especially among women. Among all voters, the "strongly favorable" crowd trails the "strongly unfavorable" one by double digits, 23%-34%.
Beyond the horse race, the poll asked voters whether they were happy with their lives and found two-thirds were either "very happy" or "quite happy." Voters 65 and older were more likely to be satisfied, at 75%, than 18 to 35-year-olds, at 65%. Black voters and White college-educated voters had over 70% satisfaction, while white, non-college-educated and Hispanic voters registered at 64% and 63%, respectively.
Of course, this is a political poll, and FAU noted a substantial happiness gap among each candidate's base: 80% of Democratic voters who intend to vote for Harris are happy with their lives, while just 57% of Republicans who plan to cast a ballot for Trump feel the same.
"As the data show, emotions play a pivotal role in shaping voter behavior and engagement," said Carol Bishop Mills, co-director of Polcom Lab.
"The significant positive sentiment among Democrats and minority voters toward Harris' candidacy reverses some feelings of frustration and disconnectedness with Biden's candidacy, while the heightened negative emotions among Republicans highlight the polarized nature of the current political climate. Understanding these emotional undercurrents is essential for developing effective, nuanced campaign strategies as we approach the 2024 Election."
Evening Reads
–"With dueling ads, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both try to define her as a candidate" via Reid J. Epstein and Nicholas Nehamas of The New York Times
—"'White Dudes for Harris' – including The Dude himself – raise over $4M" via Adela Suliman of The Washington Post
–"The 2024 presidential debate plan was set. Now it's chaos." via Isabella Simonetti, Vivian Salama and Tarini Parti of The Wall Street Journal
—"Harris and her VP pick will tour battleground states next week" via Jarrett Renshaw and Nandita Bose of Reuters
–"Abortion-rights ballot measures may not help Democrats as much as they think" via Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
–"JD Vance needs to watch 'The Brady Bunch'" via Meg Jacobs of The Atlantic
–"Where J.D. Vance's weirdest idea actually came from" via Zack Beauchamp of Vox
–"Why is Trump so obsessed with Hannibal Lecter? A complete timeline" via Miles Klee of Rolling Stone
–"New insurer offered Citizens customers steep premium hikes. Then the state stepped in." via Ron Hurtibise of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
–"After Ben Sasse's exit, what's next for UF? Likely a quiet – and costly – search." via Divya Kumar of the Tampa Bay Times
–"Florida wrongly kicked postpartum women and their newborns out of Medicaid" via Jackie Llanos of the Florida Phoenix
Quote of the Day
"I don't know who came up with the message, but I salute them."
– David Karpf, a George Washington University strategic communication professor, on Democrats branding JD Vance as 'weird.'
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes are included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
We're not trying to jinx them, but the Yes on 4 team gets a Leader of the Pack for their strong showing in a new UNF poll.
The UNF poll also showed favorable results for U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who leads likely Democratic nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by four points – not a blowout, but he still has The Edge.
Apparently, fewer than one in four voters would order JD Vance a drink if given the opportunity, but if they did, it'd probably be one of these Weird Cocktail Infusions You've Never Considered.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Rays, Marlins open brief series
The Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins open a brief two-game series in St. Petersburg this evening (6:50 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Florida).
While the Marlins have been out of the playoff picture since May, practically speaking, the Rays waved the white flag on the season with a series of deals just before the trade deadline.
Tampa Bay (54-52) traded away All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, former All-Star center fielder Randy Arozarena, pitchers Zach Eflin and Jason Adam, and infielder Amed Rosario in a handful of trades.
As a result, the Rays, 3.5 games out of the wild card race, have signaled that they are looking to the future. The moves have trimmed payroll and added prospects to the Rays' chain, and some have called them a master class.
The Marlins (39-67) also pulled off a trade before the deadline, sending outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the New York Yankees in exchange for three prospects. The Marlins' farm system lacked top prospects, and with the season heading south, Miami made the deal to send away one of the more productive players in exchange for players they hoped could help in the near future.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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