Thursday, August 8, 2024

Kamala Harris on track to trounce Donald Trump in Miami-Dade, new county poll shows

By Jesse Scheckner on August 8, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding lead over Donald Trump in Miami-Dade, where Democrats are poised to win or hold onto several countywide offices in the coming General Election, according to new polling.

Among likely voters, Harris leads the former President by a whopping 15 percentage points. That includes a 23-point lead among no-party voters.

Pollsters from Plantation-based MDW Communications surveyed 1,071 Miami-Dade voters Aug. 1-5. The poll, commissioned by political strategist Christian Ulvert's EDGE Communications, was modeled with a +5 Democratic turnout, with the makeup being 38% Democrat, 33% Republican and 29% no-party voters.

Among all county voters, 53.8% say they support Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for President. For Trump, the support was 39.5%, with 6.7% of respondents saying they are undecided.

Among, no-party voters, 55.3% support Harris, compared to 31.7% for Trump and 13% who are on the proverbial fence.

"In the first countywide poll of likely General Election voters in Miami-Dade County since Vice President Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee," Ulvert said in a statement, "(her) lead in the largest Hispanic majority county in the state of Florida affirms the coalition of voters who are excited to look ahead rather than go backwards."

The poll indicates that enthusiasm for Harris should translate into down-ballot victories for several other Democrats (and Ulvert clients) in Miami-Dade.

In a theoretical head-to-head matchup for Sheriff, Democratic Miami-Dade Public Safety Chief James Reyes leads Assistant Miami-Dade Police Director Rosie Cordero-Stutz, a Republican and Trump endorsee, by 10 points.

Reyes faces three Primary opponents. Cordero-Stutz faces 10 Republicans, some of whom polled higher than her in earlier surveys by Ulvert and the conservative Dark Horse Strategies consulting firm.

MDW only provided Reyes and Cordero-Stutz as options. Twenty-six percent of respondents say they are undecided.

For Clerk and Comptroller, 45% of respondents say they support Annette Taddeo, a former state Senator and Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair, over incumbent Republican Juan Fernandez-Barquin, a former state Representative whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed to the post in June 2023.

Fernandez-Barquin receives 35.5% support. The remaining 19.5% of respondents say they are undecided. MDW did not provide write-in candidate Rubin Young as an option.

Former Miami Beach Commissioner and state Rep. David Richardson, a Democrat, has 41.5% support in the county's Tax Collector race compared to 33% for Republican Miami-Dade Community Council member Dariel Fernandez.

Internal polling Ulvert conducted in May found Richardson enjoyed a 10-point lead over another GOP candidate, ex-Hialeah Council member Bryan Calvo.

In the Supervisor of Elections race, Democratic ethics and elections lawyer J.C. Planas has a 7-point lead over Miami Republican Rep. Alina García, with 23% of respondents saying they are undecided.

MDW did not ask respondents about two other Democrats in the race, political consultant Willis Howard and digital media entrepreneur Arnie Weiss, both of whom Planas leads in fundraising, endorsements and campaign activity.

In keeping with statewide movement, Miami-Dade has shifted redder in recent years. Trump won the county by 30 points in 2016. Four years later, he lost there by 7.

That's the margin by which Trump is on track to win Florida, according to a late July poll by the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab that also found incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott leading by 4 points against likely Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who previously represented Miami-Dade in the U.S. House.

The Primary is on Aug. 20, followed by the General Election on Nov. 5.