Republican Sen. Marco Rubio holds a 7-point lead over Rep. Val Demings, the presumed Democratic frontrunner hoping to take him on in the November General Election.
That's according to a new Mason-Dixon Florida poll. Rubio holds a 49% to 42% advantage over Demings among registered voters in the new survey.
That is consistent with spreads seen in other polls taken in the contest.
The findings don't offer entirely good news for Florida's two-term Senator. He's below 50%, never a safe place for an incumbent. And Demings has a sizable lack of recognition early in the year, while Rubio has a significant unfavorable recognition. That means she has more room for growth than he does.
"An incumbent running below 50% often leaves the door open for a challenger to significantly tighten a race under the right circumstances," Mason-Dixon pollsters stated in a news release.
Demings has her own challenges, starting with the unpopularity of President Joe Biden, which would need to improve significantly to offer her any boost. The poll found 40% of Floridians approve of his job performance, and 55% disapprove.
The poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy was conducted Feb. 7-10, with live phone interviews of 625 registered Florida voters. The pollsters reported it has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
In November, a St. Pete Polls survey of Florida registered voters gave Rubio 51% and Demings 44%. A January poll by USA TODAY Network and Suffolk University found Rubio with an 8-point lead, 49% to 41%.
The new Mason-Dixon Florida poll found Rubio's strengths are among men (with 58% to Demings' 35%), people age 50 or older (51% to 40%), among White voters (58% to 35%), and among people living in the Republican-dominated regions of North Florida (58% to 33%) and Southwest Florida (55% to 36%).
Demings' strengths are in Rubio's home region of Democratic-dominated Southeast Florida (with 53% to Rubio's 40%) and among Black voters (82% to 7%).
The splits are closer, but Rubio leads Demings in her home region of Central Florida (47% to 39%), in Tampa Bay (50% to 43%), and among Hispanic voters (44% to 39%).
Demings holds a close advantage among women (48% to 41%).
Rubio also has a 10-point lead among independent voters, (47% to 37%), while also grabbing 91% of Republican voters. Demings has the backing of 87% of Democratic voters.
The favorability ratings found that just about everyone in Florida recognizes Rubio, the former Florida House Speaker who now is in his 12th year as a U.S. Senator. The poll found 44% of Florida's registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, 37% have an unfavorable opinion, and 14% have a neutral opinion. Just 5% said they don't recognize Rubio's name.
With Demings, the former Orlando Police Chief who now is in her sixth year in Congress representing Orlando, the poll found 32% of voters do not recognize her name. Another 30% have neutral opinions of her, while 27% have positive opinions, and 11% have negative opinions.
Biden is having trouble with Florida's independent voters, with just 33% approving of his job performance. He has an 80% approval rating among Democrats, and a 7% approval among Republicans.
Biden's approval rating is above 50% with Black voters (79%), Hispanic voters (51%), and with voters in Southeast Florida (51%).
Biden's approval rating is under 40% with White voters (30%), men (37%), those 50 or older (38%), and with voters in Southwest Florida (32%), North Florida (34%), and in Central Florida (35%).
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