Gov. Ron DeSantis holds the support of a bare majority of voters, according to a new AARP poll.
Two of the nation's top pollsters conducted the survey, which found the incumbent with 50% support from likely voters, while Democrat Charlie Crist won 47%. That puts the race firmly within the poll's 4.4% margin of error.
But notably, the Republican Governor holds a stronger position with voters over 50, who prefer DeSantis by a 52% to 47% margin.
"Florida voters 50 and older are a critical voting demographic that all candidates are competing for in this midterm election," said Jeff Johnson, state director for AARP Florida.
AARP surveyed voters in swing states on the candidates they prefer and the most critical issues. Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic outfit Impact Research worked together on the comprehensive survey.
They found Republicans in decent shape in Florida, at least based on a sample that anticipates 3% more Republicans come out to vote in November than Democrats.
So long as older voters turn out with greater reliability than those under age 50 — consistent with historic trends — the Governor appears to be on track for a second term. But the contest remains close partly because DeSantis underperforms regarding non-senior voters. For respondents ages 18 to 49, Crist wins 51% to 46%.
Of note, the poll found Democrats, if anything, more eager to vote in November than Republicans, with 93% of Democrats saying they felt motivated to vote in the general election compared to 90% of Republicans and 82% of independents. That's partly thanks to the intense emotions inspired across the board by DeSantis.
"There's no one who polarizes the electorate as much as Gov. Ron DeSantis, even more so than Donald Trump," said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio.
What's even more notable is that DeSantis appears to be more popular than Crist despite the race's closeness. About 51% of voters think well of DeSantis, and 47% view him unfavorably, giving him a net favorability rating of +4%. Crist, meanwhile, is underwater with voters, with just 53% viewing him favorably and 48% expressing a distaste for the former Republican Governor turned Democratic Congressman, about a -5% rating.
Pollsters noted that DeSantis consistently has come out ahead in polls and has a massive financial advantage in the race.
"It's just about how much you're willing to spend to get an additional point," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone of Impact Research. "But I'm telling you what movement the cycle is glacial."
But whether they like candidates or not, voters on both sides seem intensely energized for the November vote.
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