Candidates for Florida's 13th Congressional District are locked in a dead heat, according to the latest survey results from St. Pete Polls.
The two are separated by less than 1 percentage point, with Republican Anna Paulina Luna posting 45.9% support to Democrat Eric Lynn's 45.3% support. Nearly 9% of those polled are still undecided.
The candidates are running to replace Democrat Charlie Crist, who left office amid a bid for Governor.
Strategically, there is good news for Lynn in the poll. More of his supporters have already voted than Luna's, which means her campaign will need to ensure those who haven't already cast a ballot do so by Election Day. Meanwhile, Lynn can focus his efforts on luring undecided voters. More than 12% of those polled who are still undecided have yet to vote.
Of those surveyed, more than 56% of Lynn's supporters said they had already voted while only 39% of Luna's supporters had already cast a ballot.
Lynn is drawing more cross-party support than his opponent. Only 7% of Democrats indicated they planned to vote for Luna, while 16% of Republicans said they would vote for Lynn.
However, Lynn has ground to make up among independent voters. Of those, more than half are backing Luna while only 40% are supporting Lynn.
Compared to other Democrats, Lynn is performing well among White voters. Luna leads the demographic, but by less than 3 percentage points. Lynn has a significant advantage among Black voters, at 56% support to Luna's 12%. And there are plenty of voters yet to capture, with 32% of Black voters indicating they are still undecided.
Lynn's performance is largely buoyed by younger voters, with more than 45% of those aged 18-29 backing the Democrat, compared to 40% for Luna. Meanwhile, she has slight leads among voters 30-49 and 50-69. The two are statistically tied among voters 70 and older.
Luna ran in the district two years ago, losing to Crist. Redistricting has since shifted district boundaries to favor Republicans. Under previous district boundaries, Democrats had about a 16,000-voter advantage. Under new boundaries, which shifted north to include areas with a heavy GOP advantage, Republicans now have about 33,000 more voters than Democrats, according to the most recent L2 voter data.
Lynn's campaign has attempted to overcome the deficit, running as a moderate Democrat and playing up Luna as an extreme Republican aligned with former President Donald Trump, his "big lie" that Joe Biden didn't win the 2020 Presidential Election, and far-right policies. The strategy is to bring in moderate Republican voters and independents, while still winning over Democrats.
Lynn currently has a full-forced digital ad playing on social media doing just that, using clips from the Tampa Bay Times recommendation for him over Luna. That recommendation points to Luna's self-described position as a "pro-life extremist," her support for Texas' abortion law that bans most abortions at about six weeks of pregnancy and her doubts about the 2020 election.
The Times worries her comments and political positions could lead her to "join the ranks of Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert and others in Congress who consistently embrace conspiracy theories, spread lies and undermine the democratic process."
The St. Pete Polls survey was taken Oct. 26-27 among 509 likely CD 13 General Election voters. It has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
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