A Florida TaxWatch report projects that the number of people moving to Florida will begin to slow running through the year 2028.
The government watchdog group is beginning a new economic outlook forecast for the state. In the initial report in what will be regular quarterly forecasts, Florida TaxWatch said the state's population will continue to increase. But the pace of that increase will begin to ease up.
The increase in population between 2023 through 2028 is expected to increase by about 1.45 million people, TaxWatch predicts. That would mean the current population of 22.7 million will increase to about 24.1 million in 2028.
But the rush to move to Florida by residents of other states will begin to cool a bit. In 2023, there were an estimated 884 people moving to the Sunshine State every day. But that figure will likely fall to 820 people migrating to Florida on a daily basis. Many people are also beginning to leave Florida to move to other states, which accounts for a net migration decrease, the TaxWatch report said.
The TaxWatch analysis said Florida's lack of an income tax and warm climate has long fueled the increasing number of people moving to the state. But in recent years, higher costs of living — most notably, increasing housing costs — will lead to the slowdown of net migration. Other factors are also driving up costs to live in Florida.
"Recently, an increasing number of Floridians are leaving the state, often citing increased costs of living, rising property taxes, rising property and insurance costs, rising housing costs, worsening traffic, and more frequent and severe weather events," the report said.
Despite the slowdown in migration to Florida, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment will still be on the upswing in the state. But the economic picture will start to back off its current rapid acceleration.
The GDP for Florida had a muscular 4.6% growth rate in 2023. The TaxWatch economic forecast projects that will soon start to fall off. As early as 2025, that GDP growth rate will slow to about 1.6% and may see a bit of rebound to 1.9% by 2027 heading into 2028.
Ultimately, Florida TaxWatch CEO Dominic Calabro cautioned that Floridians shouldn't be complacent about any perceived guarantee of accelerated economic growth that outpaces other areas of the U.S.
"Currently, Florida's economic growth continues to outpace other states across the nation, and we also boast the 14th largest economy in the world. This formidable status can certainly be attributed, in no small part, to our state leaders' conservative fiscal policies and strategic response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But the question remains: Is it sustainable over the next several years?" Calabro said.
The employment picture will reflect the same pace, with a continued solid jobs picture but noticeably slower growth and rising unemployment rates. The TaxWatch analysis projects the number of people in the Sunshine State workforce will jump from 9.8 million in 2023 to 10.4 million in 2028.
The unemployment picture will reflect the slowdown in jobs growth, with the 2.8% jobless figure in 2023 rising to 4.3% in 2026. TaxWatch analysts project that the unemployment rate will likely stabilize from there, settling in at about 4.2% in 2028.
That unemployment rate projection reflects the real-time monthly jobless figures in Florida. The Department of Economic Opportunity recently released the total unemployment rate for April. The jobless figure ticked up to 3.3% across the state, a slight increase from the March figure of 3.2% which was also a 0.1-point increase from the previous month.
Still, the TaxWatch forecast projects the number of new jobs created in Florida will slow significantly from the 2023 figure of 323,000 to 130,300 new jobs in 2028. The one area that could fluctuate more than others in the jobs figures is income growth. The 2023 figure of 5% income increase could rise to a peak of 6.2% in 2025 and then fall to 4.8% in 2028.
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