Days after Whitney Fox won her Democratic Primary, a poll conducted for Florida Politics shows her leading U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
St. Pete Polls found almost 48% of likely voters plan to support Fox, while just over 44% intend to vote for Luna. That puts the incumbent well short of the 50% threshold needed to ensure election to a second term.
The pollster surveyed participants on Aug. 27, a week after Fox won a five-candidate Democratic Primary in Florida's 13th Congressional District.
The same poll found Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee Donald Trump 51% to 46% within the Pinellas County district, and found Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, 49% to 46%.
The poll includes responses from 843 voters, with pollsters reporting a 3.4-percentage-point margin of error.
Pinellas County has traditionally been a swing county that shifted more red, along with the state, in the last election cycle. In 2022, Luna won her seat over Eric Lynn with more than 53% of the vote, with the Democrat under 45%. The same election, more than 56% of voters in the district supported Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's re-election and more than 58% backed Gov. Ron DeSantis for a second term.
About 53% of voters in the district supported Trump for President in 2020 against Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. But the latest poll suggests Pinellas voters may swing back to the left in a big way.
As of the book closing on voter rolls before Florida's Aug. 20 Primary, Republicans maintained a substantial voter registration edge in the district. More than 205,000 registered Republicans live in the district, compared to almost 151,000 Democrats and 136,000 no-party voters.
The poll found Luna remains popular among Republican voters there, with more than 78% backing the Republican incumbent and just 16% ready to cross lines and vote for Fox.
But the incumbent performs poorly with all other voters. Among Democrats, Fox has the support of nearly 86%, while just 6% want Luna re-elected. Among independents about 51% plan to vote for Fox while less than 39% favor Luna.
With two women serving as the face of their parties, Fox holds a slight edge with female voters, at 47% to 44%.
Pollsters only found the 70-and-up age demographic supporting Luna. About 54% like the incumbent, while 37% prefer Fox. But Fox leads with the 50-69 set, with 49% to Luna's 45%. Fox is up with 30- to 49-year-olds, 53% to 39%, and with voters under 30, 68% to 22%.
Federal Election Commission reports do show Luna enjoying the financial edge of incumbency. As of July 31, she had more than $917,000 in cash on hand for the race, while Fox had $119,000. And that was before Fox had to market herself in a Democratic Primary, while Luna won her nomination without opposition.
But Luna is one of just two Florida incumbents targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has signaled it intends to spend generously on the race. Fox was also one of just two Democratic congressional Primary winners spotlighted in a Florida Democratic Party press call this week.
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