Turnout may have been low Tuesday for Primaries happening across the state — an unfortunate byproduct of a rather boring ballot, according to Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd — but important decisions were made nonetheless.
And with any important decision, there are Winners and Losers. On the surface, voters weighed in on U.S. Senate races at the top of the ticket, all the way down to local referendums, judicial contests and School Board races at the bottom of the ballot. Under the surface are the political operatives jockeying for their version of success, advocates pushing one way or the other, groups to be affected, and more.
Calling winners and losers directly from the ballot is easy and straightforward (for most of us anyway), but it's behind the curtain where the real victors emerge, and where the losers perhaps hide.
Our Florida Politics team, with an assist from some of our sources in The Process, have mulled races from Jacksonville to Miami, from the Gulf Coast to the Space Coast, to determine who came out smelling like roses, and who left with egg on their face.
Biggest Winner
Team Leek — It's fitting that the trial lawyers named their anti-Leek dark money group "Floridians for Accountability, Freedom and Opportunity," because they certainly did FAFO. The committee contribution reports read like a "who's who" of major Democratic donors across the state, but even with more than $10 million at their disposal, their attacks were futile. They funneled money through The Truth Matters PC, starting a relentless attack on Leek in mid-April, and sent even more cash to Conservative Veterans Alliance PC, a hollow spending entity for their candidate with no ties to conservatism or veterans. But in Leek, they faced a well-respected candidate whose impeccable conservative record not only carried a credible message, but who garnered his own "who's who" of GOP elected leaders who jumped onboard before the Florida Justice Association even had a chance to draft their late-entering candidate, ex-St. Johns Sheriff David Shoar. Conveniently, Shoar worked for the personal injury billboard lawyer firm in Ponte Vedra that led the dark money groups, and he ended up finishing a sad, low-energy third in his own home county. Leek built the team he wanted with him in the fight. They crafted strategy, implemented tactics and introduced the superior candidate to the voters, all while fending off attacks that ultimately did not even scratch the paint on the Leek campaign. Even better for the Ormond Beach lawmaker, the hard part is over. The only thing left is polishing up the victory speech.
In on the win: David Johnson of the David Johnson Group, Katie Ballard of Katie Ballard Consulting, Caroline Schwab, Doug Abate, Mike Scudiero, Eli Menton, Stephanie Wohlford, Ryan Houck of Consensus Communications, Christina Johnson of On 3 Public Relations, Rich Heffley, Jim Rimes, Kevin Sweeny of Long Run Strategies, Noreen Fenner of PAC Financial Management, and Joel Springer, Pat Bainter, Erin Issac, and the rest of the fine folks at the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Winners
Ben Albritton — Senate Republicans have been working with a historic majority for the past two years, and the pieces are starting to fall into place for the next two years. The Senate President-designate's top picks — Leek, Randy Fine, Ed Hooper and Keith Truenow — all won their nominating contests. Now, only a couple of semicompetitive General Election races stand in the way of a two more years of GOP dominance in the upper chamber.
Daniella Levine Cava '26 — Once upon a time, Miami-Dade was a lock for Democrats, but Republicans have been chipping away for years and in 2022 the blue wall crumbled, going 55%-44% for the Governor. The margin wasn't any better in the U.S. Senate race. Through that lens, Tuesday night seems like a blast from the past — Levine Cava trapped a whopping 58% of the vote, shutting down six challengers to win re-election outright. Sure, Miami-Dade Mayor is a "nonpartisan" seat, but she's posting the numbers Dems will need if they hope to break the GOP's 30-year monopoly on the Governor's Office, and that's the most compelling argument any Democrat has made for a statewide run in the 2026 preseason.
Educated We Stand — Gov. Ron DeSantis put his thumb on the scale in a dozen-plus School Board races. Voters weren't listening. From Hillsborough to Orange to Miami-Dade, the DeSantis-Moms for Liberty machine failed to gain traction. Doubtless, culture war fatigue shoulders part of the blame here, but Educated We Stand (EWS) deserves some credit. Voters sided with 10 of their candidates outright while rejecting two. With that W-L record, fundraising for the five EWS-backed candidates heading to runoffs should be a cakewalk.
"Take Back Local" — For starters, see above. The Florida Democratic Party hasn't had much to celebrate in recent years, but they bet on local elections and they came out the other side with victories worth celebrating. Does that guarantee Florida is in play this year? Hardly. But as of Wednesday morning, there aren't as many people laughing at the prospect.
Christian Ulvert/Edge Communications — If there were any doubts Ulvert runs one of the best shops on the blue side of the fence, they were squashed on Tuesday. Edge Communications shot 100% from the field, notching outright wins for Levine Cava, Ashley Gantt and Luisa Santos and Primary wins for Alexcia Cox, James Reyes and JC Planas. Campaign consulting is a tough business, but being able to say "scoreboard" makes the sales pitch a breeze.
Dean Black — It doesn't matter if you're a fan of the Representative, he gets a pat on the back for allowing us to delete the name "Nathan Tocco" from our collective memory. Ushering an antisemitic loser into obscurity is reason enough to celebrate, but Black's election as Duval State Committeeman wasn't his only win on Election Day. As sitting Duval GOP Chair, Black gets a slice of the credit for flipping the county School Board to a conservative majority with victories by Melody Bolduc and Tony Ricardo. He also brought Duval to a Republican vote plurality, putting a damper on the "Bluval" trend of the past two years.
Ana Carbonell — Many candidates and their teams had their hands full defeating one or two candidates Tuesday night. Try beating 10. Well, Carbonell helped Miami Sheriff candidate Rosie Cordero-Stutz do just that in the Republican Primary for Miami-Dade County Sheriff. And if it isn't obvious enough in an 11-candidate field, the margins really mattered here, with Cordero-Stutz topping the field with 24% support, just ahead of second-place finisher Joe Sanchez at 22%. Carbonell led Hispanic advertising for the Cordero-Stutz team. And she helped put Cordero-Stutz in the win column, ready for a General Election matchup against Reyes.
Max Goodman — The longtime advisor to U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan helped keep yet another Republican Primary challenge, this one from Inspiration Academy founder and New College trustee reject Eddie Speir, at bay. The Longboat Key Republican won his race by more than 20 points even as anti-establishment fury consumed Manatee County. But the biggest win for Goodman — and really Sarasota as a whole — was his spirited campaign to elect a slate of Hospital Board candidates dedicated to preserving Sarasota Memorial Hospital as a public institution. Two years after pandemic politics landed a few extremists on the Hospital Board, Goodman led a monthslong campaign to out-message the Hollow nuts and Michael Flynn cult to save one of the region's most critical and life-preserving treasures.
Bob Gualtieri — The Pinellas County Sheriff wasn't on the ballot Tuesday, but his support sure was. Gualtieri endorsed two incumbent Pinellas School Board members — Laura Hine and Eileen Long — in defiance of DeSantis, who targeted both incumbents and backed their Moms for Liberty-aligned challengers. Gualtieri came out on top, with the incumbents scoring wins in the Primary and earning re-election. Adding to the Governor's pain, neither race was close, and Hine's would most accurately be described as a shellacking.
MDW Communications — Here's an interesting (and totally irrelevant) stat: The South Florida-based firm scored more home wins in one night than the Marlins have all season. The cherry on top, there aren't a couple dozen losses on the other side of the seesaw. They had a hand in races running the gamut from Miami-Dade Mayor to Miami Gardens Council, with a handful of referendums thrown in for good measure. The final tally: 30 wins. Champs aren't known for resting on their laurels. Still, we hope the team takes a few moments to celebrate before turning their full attention to November.
Mercury — The dynamic duo of Democratic consultants — Ashley Walker and Eric Johnson — had a very good Tuesday night, notching key victories across South Florida. In Miami-Dade, Walker was instrumental in securing wins for Levine Cava and Sheriff candidate Reyes. In Broward County, the pair shepherded the re-election of Sheriff Gregory Tony. Additionally, they helped a vastly outspent Joe Geller advance to a runoff for Miami-Dade School Board and earned an assist for their part in guiding EWS to their excellent 15-out-of-17 performance.
Terry Miller — Yes, he's working at Ballard Partners these days. Yes, he is also still the reigning "King-&-Queen-Maker of Southwest Florida." If anything, Tuesday night showed his grip on the title is tighter than ever. Through TM Strategic Consulting, Miller notched nine wins in hotly contested county, municipal and judicial races across Southwest Florida. That's on top of representing a handful of top lawmakers who cruised through the Primary unopposed in a pocket of the state where the Primary is the only election that matters.
Alex Pantinakis — This GOP Political Director had a clean sweep of consulting clients — Black, Duval State Committeewoman Ginger Soud, Nassau County Commissioner Klynt Farmer, Jeff Gray, Kathy Burns, Mitch Keiter and first place for Putnam County Judge Anne Marie Gennusa. With a Tuesday like that, expect him to continue being one of the few consultants in the Jax area who gets a call before the candidate paperwork is filed.
Progressive Tallahassee — Turns out some sequels are better than the original. Congrats to Jeremy Matlow, Kristellys Estanga, Will Crowley and the many Tallahassee progressives (and yes, that includes you, too, Ryan Ray) who helped City Commissioner Jack Porter avoid a runoff election against a well-funded opponent. Porter won her original upset election against Elaine Bryant in 2020 with 52%, and Tuesday night the same winning team beat down challenger Rudy Ferguson decisively, trapping 53.5% in a multicandidate race.
Rhetorical questions — An overwhelming majority of Miami-Dade voters (78.5%) said "yes" to a straw poll Tuesday asking whether the county should prioritize expanding its rapid transit system, including more elevated rail and Metromover lines. "We didn't know that already," said absolutely nobody. The question, placed on the Primary ballot through legislation by Miami-Dade Commission Chair Oliver Gilbert, is among the most "no duh" queries possible in the perpetually traffic-jammed county. Yet here we are, asking the same thing about a problem local leaders agreed to address almost a decade ago by adopting the so-called SMART Plan. That plan was itself a rebranding of sorts of earlier programs aimed at making it easier for residents to get around the county without driving. So far, it's been slow-going and generally underwhelming. The Metrorail Orange Line, opened in 2012, represents the last notable addition to the system. And it mostly serves tourists coming to and from the airport. So yes, it's high time Miami-Dade leaders follow through on the promise made in 2002 when voters agreed to tax themselves more to fund additional transit lines by actually building some.
Ruth's List — Robert Neyland, Tom Osborne, Barry Switzer … no, those names weren't on any ballots Tuesday, they're simply coaching legends whose winning percentage pales next to the 84% Ruth's List managed with their 2024 Primary slate. What makes that record more impressive is that this cycle is arguably the most crucial to the pro-choice organization's mission statement since its founding. Winning is tough, winning under pressure is tougher. On to November.
Kevin Sweeny — Field wins. 'Nuff said.
Persistence — Congratulations to former Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief. After back-to-back campaigns in which she spent a combined $1.2 million of mostly her own money and only a meagerly funded opponent left to face in the General Election, she likely — finally — bought herself a Senate seat. Two years ago, Sharief forced Senate Democratic Leader Lauren Book into an expensive, "ugly" Primary battle that sucked vital funding from other state races. Hey, at least there wasn't any collateral damage this time around!
Honorable Mentions
Randy Fine — He earned himself a pat on the back for officially landing the GOP nomination in SD 19. He gets another for winning election as Republican State Committeeman. Neither outcome was unexpected, per se, but a twofer is always worthy of a mention.
Enwright Rimes — The firm helped Laurie Lawson Cox hang on in Tallahassee, serving as the combo breaker to an otherwise successful Matlow machine on Tuesday. Bonus points: They were instrumental in Kim Adkinson's hard-fought win in the District 3 Brevard County Commission race.
Reggie Cardozo — Cardozo's big W came from the District 3 St. Pete City Council race, where his dog in the race finished No. 1. Who knows how Pete Boland would've performed without Cardozo in his corner, but his low name-ID, middle-of-the-road fundraising and 0-1 record in local elections scream "underdog." So, Cardozo deserves credit for his role in orchestrating his first-place finish
Josh Cooper — Sure, he's leading Republicans to major victories in Indiana, Pennsylvania and Utah, but he hasn't forgotten about Florida. In fact, his research was part of winning efforts in 14 GOP Primaries on Tuesday night, including another layup for U.S. Sen. Rick Scott.
Chris Licata — His consulting company, The Policy Standard, is one of the new kids on the block, but it's quickly becoming a name to know. The big feather in his cap: A nail-biter win for Ryan Amsler, who snuck past a Wilton Simpson-backed Hernando County Commission candidate. That's the kind of win people notice.
Winners with a blemish
Anthony Pedicini — An 80%-plus win rate will never be unimpressive, and the top-tier GOP campaign consultant had some big-time W's Tuesday night, including in the Palm Beach State Attorney's race as well as Nan Cobb for House District 26, Richard Gentry for House District 27 and Bill Conerly for House District 72. That makes the losses sting even more, though, and the Manatee County Commission slate handed Pedicini more than one.
Evan Power — As RPOF Chair he oversaw an impressive R+14 turnout. Many key allies of Evan also won in down ballot State Committeeman and State Committeewoman races, but if DeSantis is in the L-column below, as we believe, it reflects on the Chair.
Ryan Smith — Few doubted Matt Gaetz and Mike Haridopolos would come out on top in their races, but it's still nice to be on the winning side. And he does have a win worth touting in House District 81, where Yvette Benarroch trounced Marco Island City Councilman Greg Folley in one of the more expensive House Primaries this cycle. But there's a Shoar-sized stain on his August scorecard, and it's going to take a few washes to get out.
Mixed bag
Alexis Calatayud — Yes, she's doing good things in the Florida Senate, but it has to hurt to see former Chief of Staff Alian Collazo fall flat in his bid for the Florida House.
Jason Pizzo — He's still looking like a strong contender for Governor in 2026 but, man … Book for Sharief is hands-down, bar none, *insert emphatic trope here* the worst roster swap in the Legislature this cycle.
Anthony Sabatini — Show of hands: Who's surprised he weaponized his REC Chairmanship for personal gain? No takers? Anyways, as the saying goes (kind of), "It's not the destination that matters, the real treasure is the bridges he burned along the way."
Losers
Ron DeSantis — At one point, a DeSantis endorsement carried the same weight as a nod from the big man, at least in Florida. Oh, how times have changed. Looking at Tuesday's results, the Governor's endorsement is about as valuable in August 2024 as it was in August 2018, and a chunk of the historical worth hinges on the electorate of yesteryear not knowing who he was or why they should care. OK, maybe that's too harsh … still, his failed presidential campaign did undeniable damage to his standing on his home turf, and while Florida voters can be forgiving, it's going to take them longer than six months to forgive and forget.
DeSantis Comms team — Anyone have Sid Fleischman's phone number? The Governor is running out of whipping boys.
The Florida Senate — Fine and Sharief have more in common than either one would dare admit. Need convincing? Don't worry, you're about to get as much catastrophizing, demonizing and exaggerated victimhood you can handle — in stereo, where available.
Kevin McCarthy — Remember when this man was once the third-most powerful elected official in the United States? So much has happened since Gaetz led the charge to oust him from the Speakership, that if McCarthy had just kept his head down, that supremely embarrassing moment would be nothing more than a distant memory. But, no, he wanted revenge. Whichever adviser thought going after Gaetz in a Republican Primary was a winning strategy should be put in the stockade. But we'll hazard a guess that this was McCarthy's idea, and his team of yes men were just happy to still be cashing paychecks. In retrospect, we'd like to thank Gaetz for putting more than two heartbeats in between McCarthy and the Oval Office.
Election deniers — Either voter fraud is more rampant than ever (it's not) or election deniers took a haymaker to the jaw on Tuesday (they did). In Elections Supervisor Primaries across the state, Florida Republicans made themselves abundantly clear: If you think the jury is still out on 2020, the verdict is in for your campaign. The results weren't pretty, either — look at the 4-to-1 beatdown Mick Peters took in Lee County or the crushing defeat Tom Vail suffered at the hands of Alan Hays in Lake. Of all the beliefs a Sunshine State Republican candidate could hold, the idea that a state which twice elected Donald Trump and sent GOP supermajorities to both chambers of the Legislature was home to rampant voter fraud was among the most puzzling. Going forward, expect it to be among the rarest.
Florida Justice Association — The organization really did f*ck around in state Senate District 7 and it will find out during the 2025 Legislative Session and beyond what it cost it. We just hope nice guy Jeff Porter hangs on to his job. We've seen other political directors go down for less.
John Morgan — Trulieve and other Amendment 3 backers are hoping Mr. For The People has better luck in November than he did Tuesday when he became the face of the opposition to soon-to-be-state-Sen. Leek. Morgan seemed to take this race especially personal and the negativity poured out of him like the brown liquor does his pores.
Moms for Liberty — Where to begin? Tuesday was one of the worst days in what has already been a very bad year for Moms for Liberty. From the swamplands to the suburbs, there was barely any traction to be found. The pieces were all there — DeSantis endorsements, solid fundraising, a grassroots army of moms — but looking at the results, you'd have an easier time selling Curve subscriptions to the Karens at your local School Board meeting than convincing everyday voters that Moms for Liberty knows what's best for their kids. A few of the candidates they backed managed to limp their way to a November runoff, and if M4L hopes to salvage what's left of their dignity in November, they better get cracking.
Carlos Beruff, Pat Neal and Randy Benderson — The Southwest Florida-based developers enjoyed enormous successes the last two election cycles in Sarasota and Manatee counties. But like a rubber band stretched to its limits and released, voters this election snapped back hard enough to leave a nasty mark. That could be seen most clearly in Manatee. There, a record amount was spent by County Commissioner Kevin Van Ostenbridge as he abandoned his District 3 seat to challenge colleague George Kruse for his at-large seat, only to lose by 17 points. Indeed, four Commission seats, a board majority, went to essentially anti-developer candidates against better funded opponents, and Beruff lackey James Satcher lost the Supervisor of Elections Office to boot. The developers could find some comfort in the election of Teresa Mast — a contractor married to the head of the Suncoast Homebuilders Association — to the Sarasota County Commission. But then appointed Sarasota County Commissioner Neil Rainford lost his seat in spectacular fashion to former Sheriff Tom Knight despite releasing all the smears the deep-pocketed developers could afford. Knight won his race by more than 21 points, sending a message reverberating across the county that Sarasota voters feel done with default "yes" votes for developer applications.
Brett Doster — Yes, he won some races. Chad Johnson clinched the nom in House District 22 and Judson Sapp did likewise in House District 20. But Dave Weldon got dumpstered in House District 32 and his candidates in HD 27 and HD 81 didn't fare much better. The same performance from anyone else would've landed in the "winners with a blemish" section, but Doster set such a high bar for himself two years ago when he dead lifted the so-called "Doster Caucus" that a middling night simply doesn't cut it.
Keith Gross — Gross bumbled through his long-shot Primary bid against Scott, as he attempted to oust one of the state's leading Republicans. He fell short (obviously), but didn't land here simply for losing. Anyone is entitled to enter the arena. No, Gross is here because his consultant, Matt Hurley, got Gross to spend nearly $2.5 million — padded with an eye-popping number of around $2.3 million of Gross' own cash — to get 9% of the vote in the Primary and finish 75 points behind Scott. Money well spent, it was not.
Dave Happe — The conservative activist suffered blow after blow Tuesday night, with most of his endorsed candidates (and one issue) falling at the ballot box. He endorsed Danielle Marolf for Pinellas School Board. She lost … by a lot. He endorsed Erika Picard for Pinellas County School Board. She lost … by less, but it still wasn't close. He endorsed voting "no" on the Pinellas County referendum re-authorizing tax incentives for businesses. It passed … by a lot. Judicial candidates Jenn Dubbeld and Kate Spurlock? That'd be a loss with a side of loss. He had some endorsements pan out, but it'd be too generous to count them as wins — do you think Scott, Hooper and Vincent Nowicki are thanking their lucky stars Happe backed them? Maybe Rocky Rochford in CD 14 could go down as a W, but we all know he's moving over to the L's come November.
Last-minute lawsuits — Note to ex-Surfside Mayor Shlomo Danzinger: It didn't matter where Levine Cava's name ended up on the ballot; she was always going to kick your ass. On the eve of Election Day, Danzinger filed a lawsuit alleging that Levine Cava had lied on election forms to ensure her name appeared at the top of the ballot, before his name and that of five others running to unseat her. As evidence, he pointed to two oaths of candidacy her campaign filed in May, the first listing her last name as "Levine Cava," the second listing it solely as "Cava." Levine Cava was gaining an unfair advantage, he argued, as studies have proven top-billed candidates get more votes. But the fact of the matter is most Miami-Dade residents know who Levine Cava is, something that can't be said of Danzinger, who received less than 2% of the vote in what ended up as a Levine Cava rout.
Ryan Ray — You can't win 'em all. Despite wins by Jack Porter and Dot Inman-Johnson, firefighter Jeremy Rogers fell short. He gave Laurie Lawson Cox a stout challenge, leading through early voting and coming within inches of the upset. But as things got dirty at the end, the GOP offensive proved too much for him to handle. Better luck next time.
Collin Thompson — The Sarasota-based Republican consultant has a relatively small book of clients, but all that means is there are fewer excuses for losing. DeSantis-backed candidates had a rough night on the whole, but Thompson still had the ingredients to deliver a victory to incumbent School Board member Karen Rose. No dice. Maybe call Goodman next time?
VR Systems — In a case of a no-good, very bad day, VR Systems was behind sweeping tech problems that plagued public-facing county Supervisor of Elections (SOE) websites across Florida Tuesday. While users were still able to access election result pages from direct links, home pages for numerous SOE websites struggled to load, which is how most people go about accessing election night information. The system was so bad, Broward County Supervisor of Elections Joe Scott told the Tampa Bay Times he has "every intention of not using them for our website in the future." Fortunately, the troubles turned out to be an inconvenience, not a detriment to actual vote-counting. And the state's results page, which some of the sites redirected to amid problems, was not impacted. Still, in a political climate in which some voters remain concerned about voter integrity, such Election Day snafus are unacceptable, and VR Systems will likely pay the price.
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