Last Call – A prime-time read of what's going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
If hashtags were reality, former President Donald Trump is going to mop up on the debate stage tonight.
BetOnline.ag has spent the past week tracking X posts containing hashtags and direct keyword phrases about who will win the debate.
The bookmaker cited example phrases such as "Trump will win the debate," "Trump is going to win the debate," "Trump will dominate the debate," "Kamala Harris will win the debate," "Kamala will dominate the debate," and "Kamala will win" that also have debate hashtags such as #debate, #POTUSdebate, and #presidentialdebate.
Overall, 240,000 tweets were tracked. When combined with location information, BetOnline.ag found that Trump is the favorite among posters in 30 states, while Harris is leading in 20.
The bookie noted that the result would be much closer if the breakdown were based on electoral votes. The states where Trump is seen as the favorite in tonight's debate account for 296 electoral votes compared to 242 electoral votes for Harris.
BetOnline.ag said it should be noted that Donald Trump supporters are generally more active on social media than Harris supporters as she is the "lesser known" candidate. In addition, the bookie said, some pundits suggest Trump has an advantage in that he is expected to do "less" than Harris and that there may be more pressure on her to make an impact.
Evening Reads
—"Will this be the last debate?" via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—"Will the Trump-Harris debate actually matter?" via Michael Warren, David M. Drucker, Steve Hayes, Sarah Isgur and Charles Hilu of The Dispatch
—"How should Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump?" via Russell Berman of The Atlantic
—"Trump's debate plan: Pop the Harris 'bubblewrap'" via Marc A. Caputo of The Bulwark
—"Get weird and nasty with our presidential debate bingo drinking game" via Alex DeLuca of The Miami New Times
—"Harris is bringing two former Trump administration officials as her debate guests" via Megan Messerly of POLITICO
—"Harris-Trump debate will be loaded with economic implications for investors" via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics
—"The stocks, bonds and currencies investors are watching during the Trump-Harris debate" via Carter Johnson and Esha Dey of Bloomberg
—"The 53 wildest lines from Trump's Wisconsin weekend speech" via Chris Cillizza of So What
—"Can we trust the polls this year?" via Christian Paz of Vox
—"Elon Musk's misleading election claims reach millions and alarm election officials" via Sarah Ellison, Amy Gardner and Clara Ence Morse of The Washington Post
—"Poll: The 'Free State of Florida' may not be free enough for voters this year" via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics
—"17 more Florida state parks were considered for golf courses, lodge, pickleball" via Emily L. Mahoney and Max Chesnes of the Tampa Bay Times
—"The two worlds of Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister" via Sue Carlton of the Tampa Bay Times
Quote of the Day
"And look, that was a negligent derelict act on behalf of that parent."
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on the Georgia shooter's father gifting him a rifle.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Pour a Freedom Frosé for Florida voters, who increasingly support amendments that reinforce individual freedoms.
There's no Second Gentleman cocktail — yet — so Doug Emhoff will have to settle for a pair of Gentleman's Exchanges when he swings through Central Florida on Friday.
Order a Prime Inspector for UF associate professor Jennifer Bridge, who helped develop new legislation for state condo inspections.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
USMNT tries to bounce back after loss to Canada
After a lackluster 2-1 loss to Canada, the U.S. Men's National Team hits the pitch tonight against New Zealand in Cincinnati (7 p.m. ET, TNT).
Facing 40th-ranked Canada Saturday in Kansas City, midfielder Luca de la Torre scored the lone goal for the U.S., his first senior team tally. While U.S. Soccer works to finalize the deal to bring former Tottenham, Barcelona, and Chelsea coach Mauricio Pochettino in as manager, interim U.S. coach Mikey Varas trotted out a young starting eleven, including eight players 23 years or younger. The result did not follow.
Canada was motivated, at least head coach Jesse Marsch was. The American was spurned by U.S. Soccer two years ago when Gregg Berhalter was brought back as head coach after the World Cup.
New Zealand ranks 94th in the FIFA World Rankings, the country's highest ranking in a decade.
The USMNT finds itself in an unusual position as it awaits the permanent coach's arrival. Not only are they without their manager, but they also do not have to do anything to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. As a host nation, the U.S. is in, along with co-hosts Canada and Mexico.
The next major challenge for the USMNT will come during the CONCACAF Gold Cup, scheduled for next June.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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