A new survey with a strong Republican lean suggests U.S. Sen. Rick Scott may be headed to another nail biter election this November.
The Emerson College Poll of 815 likely voters conducted Sept. 3-5 shows Scott ahead of Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by a statistically insignificant one percentage point, at 46% support to 45%.
This is the closest poll yet between the two, and the result is particularly remarkable given the GOP lean of the sample, which is 39% Republican and 32% Democrat.
"Florida independent votes break for Mucarsel-Powell, 47% to 34%, while 19% are undecided. Women voters break for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 48% to 42%, while men break for Scott, 51% to 42%," the Emerson analysis notes.
Scott is skeptical about polling, as he told Florida Politics last month.
"We're going to have a big win. If you look at all my races, the polls have generally been way off," Scott said in Jacksonville. "In all three of my races, polls said I was going to lose … because they're not accurate."
Inaccurate or not, at least some of the polls say the race is increasingly close.
In a Redfield and Wilton survey released last week, the first-term Republican from Naples leads his Democratic opponent 43% to 40%.
This survey shows a closer race than last week's Florida Chamber of Commerce/Cherry Communications poll, which has Scott at 52%, 7 points ahead of the Democrat.
Meanwhile, per a Public Policy Polling survey of the state conducted Aug. 21-22 for the Clean and Prosperous Energy PAC, Scott leads 46% to 43%.
A recent survey from Florida Atlantic University's PolCom Lab shows Scott with a marginal 47% to 43% lead over his Democratic opponent.
Polling from the Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) shows Scott ahead of Mucarsel-Powell by 10 points (52-42%) with 7% of voters undecided.
Previous Florida Atlantic University polls showed Scott with varied leads, one by 16 points and the other by 2 points, and a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll showed a 15-point advantage for Scott earlier this Summer.
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