Most pundits agree the first redistricting drafts published in Florida appear less aggressively gerrymandered than some expected. But how fair were the products? The Princeton Gerrymandering Project found when it comes to treating both parties fairly, things appear relatively on track.

The Senate Reapportionment Committee staff published its first drafts, with four proposed maps for Florida's 28 congressional districts and four for the Florida Senate.

All eight maps earned a grade of B in terms of partisan fairness, the most prominent grade on the university-issued report card. In all cases, the maps found there was a "slight Republican advantage," but not one so severe it constituted a poor assessment.

The Florida Congressional Delegation today includes 16 House Republicans and 10 House Democrats, with one vacancy most recently held by the late Democrat Alcee Hastings. Princeton analysts predict Florida voters would most likely would produce 16 Republicans and 12 Democrats under any of the proposed maps, which actually awards Florida's one new seat to Democrats.

That's somewhat of a surprise considering the heavy Republican majorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and also a sign legislative leaders want to avoid a same fate for the maps that arrived after the 2012 redistricting process. Those congressional lines stayed in place just two election cycled before courts tossed them on grounds Florida violated its then-new Fair Districts amendment in the Florida Constitution.

Of course, even with an extra blue seat, that leaves Florida with 57% of its House members as Republicans in a state famously divided in presidential elections. Republican Donald Trump won Florida with 51% of the vote over Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 race for President.

The Florida Senate today has 24 Republicans and 16 Democrats, and Princeton analysts predict all four maps most likely would produce a 23-17 Senate. Again, that lets Democrats net one seat, but leaves Republicans in control.

Of note, the Princeton analysts don't give such high marks when it comes to drafting maps with competitive races. There, the Senate staff gets Cs across the board.

That's because in all drafts of congressional maps, there are only four of 28 seats that would be considered competitive based on 2020 Census data.

The swing districts include Florida's 13th, 14th, 26th and 27th Congressional Districts, represented now by Democrats Charlie Crist and Kathy Castor and Republicans Carlos Gimenez and Maria Salazar respectively. That alone may grab some attention as many expected Florida's 10th Congressional District, repressented by Democrat Stephanie Murphy, to be a 2022 battlegroud, and few people considered Castor to be in danger.

For the Senate maps, all four drafts have six seats out of 40 where both Democrats and Republicans have a shot at winning.

Notably, Senate officials in public hearings have said their focus won't be on partisan issues, and instead, the geographic tests of compactness will take priority. But all four congressional draft maps earn a C from Princeton on consideration of geographic features like rivers, roads and existing county lines. In three congressional drafts, 21 of Florida's 67 counties are split, and in one draft the number is only 20. All maps earn a C grade on compactness.

The Senate draftsdo a little better, earning Bs across the board. While compactness never quite gets out of the C threshold, it comes closer than in the congressional cartography. But analysts were most impressed each map keeps all but 16 Florida counties whole in the maps.