Good Wednesday morning.
It's campaign season AND political conference season, so what better guest to have on "Hunkering Down with Peter Schorsch" than Matt Dixon of POLITICO Florida?
Listen here.
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A new poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio is up five points in his re-election, but Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings is gaining ground.
The Center Street PAC poll found Florida voters prefer Rubio 45%-40%, and his lead improved to 50%-42% among likely voters.
However, Demings is starting to build a substantial lead among independent voters. Though she currently trails Rubio 33%-29%, her stock has risen 13 points among that bloc of voters since Center Street's March poll.
Marco Rubio maintains the lead, but Val Demings is not far behind.
"Marco's still the favorite, but what's interesting is that he's sort of stalled out. He has a motivated base of voters locked in, but he's not making any new pitch to draw in new voters," Center Street co-founder Jacob Perry said.
"The other issue is that there's no constituency that's particularly excited about Rubio. Democrats obviously don't like him, but neither do (Donald) Trump Republicans. Val outraised him two to one, but also outspent him, and that spending really paid off in building her awareness numbers."
According to the pollster, Demings' media buys are working. Combined with her favorability ratings — 42% of voters find her "somewhat" or "very" favorable, compared to 26% who find her "somewhat" or "very" unfavorable — the committee predicts that more ad spending will pay dividends in the fall.
"Demings demonstrates real strength in candidate favorability, as she is plus-16 among those aware of her. But she still has gaps in Name Awareness, even with the 12-point improvement," said Kurt Jetta, the committee's chief analytics officer.
"She'll need to build her 77% to 95% to be at parity with Rubio. With an opponent who has decent favorability in his own right, Demings will need to outraise and outspend to have a chance to win in November."
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Floridians say that jobs and the economy are the state's most important issues, and Gov. Ron DeSantis has done a reasonably good job addressing them.
According to a new poll by researchers from the University of South Florida and Florida International University, 35% of Floridians rate jobs and the economy as their top priority, followed by government corruption at 13%, health care at 9%, and immigration at 9%.
Floridians say the economy trumps culture war battles when it comes to voting. Nearly three-quarters of those polled said their decisions on Election Day would be based on pocketbook issues, while just 26% said they would put more weight into social issues such as LGBTQ rights, abortion and equity.
Voters give kudos to Ron DeSantis for his handling of Florida's economy.
That's good news for DeSantis, especially since half of Floridians — 50% — approve of the state's economy under his watch compared to 41% of respondents who said they disapprove.
DeSantis' numbers stand in stark contrast to President Joe Biden's, whose approval rating continues to nose-dive both in Florida and nationwide.
The poll found that 62% of Floridians disapprove of his performance regarding jobs and the economy — slightly less than the 63% who find him lacking on border issues.
Floridians aren't giving DeSantis high marks across the board, with less than half of those polled approving of his efforts on conservation (44%) and addressing climate change (42%).
The USF/FIU survey was conducted July 2-10. It has a sample size of 600 and a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
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Aaron Bean's congressional campaign is releasing its second ad in the race for Florida's 4th Congressional District.
Titled "20 Seconds," the ad kicks off with a narrator asking if it's possible "to list all of Joe Biden's failures in just 20 seconds."
The Fernandina Beach Republican displays his auctioneering skills, listing several of the President's perceived failures. However, the narrator cuts him off by saying, "Sorry, Bean, it's just too long."
Campaign spokesperson Sarah Bascom said, "As Florida's domestic vote by mail primary ballots are readied to drop, the Aaron Bean for Congress campaign is airing a new 30-second television ad starting this morning. 'Twenty Seconds' will run concurrently with the 'Best Days' spot that has been airing on broadcast television, cable and CTV in the Jacksonville market."
Bean, currently a state Senator, is the leading Republican running for CD 4 and has garnered endorsements from most top GOP officials in the state, including U.S. Marco Rubio, Attorney General Ashley Moody and CFO Jimmy Patronis.
He faces Erick Aguilar and health insurance contract analyst Jon Chuba in the Aug. 23 Republican Primary. Two Democrats are also running for the seat though CD 4 is expected to perform Republican in November.
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
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Larry J. Overton and Associates announced it has merged with The Legis Group.
"The Legis Group has established a strong presence in Tallahassee in the last five years, and our merger will continue to allow us to service our clients and fulfill their government relations needs," said Joel Overton, managing partner of LJO & Associates.
The Legis Group was founded in 2017 by Doug Holder and Rob Schenck. With the addition of Joel Overton and LJO founder Larry Overton, it now consists of eight members. Other lobbyists at the firm are Patrick Bell, Mike Fischer, Susan Goldstein and Carol Duncanson.
"I am excited for Joel and this new opportunity to lead our clients. I am also excited to work with Rob and Doug and the rest of the team at The Legis Group," Larry Overton said.
Larry J Overton & Associates was founded in 1984, and over the past four decades, it has built a reputation as one of Florida's leading health care advocates.
"We are excited to welcome both Larry and Joel into The Legis Group. I have had the privilege of working with Larry and Joel in the past and know that the Legis Group will greatly benefit from the knowledge and experience of LJO & Associates," Schenck said.
"The Overtons will be an important resource and addition to our team, and I look forward to working with them as colleagues."
Holder added, "We are truly honored that Larry and Joel trust us with their long and prestigious history."
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LSN Law announced that Tracy Slavens will lead its Land Use & Zoning Practice. Slavens will also become a partner at LSN Law in addition to consulting firm LSN Partners.
Highly regarded for her proficiency, Slavens will use her expertise to assist and advise LSN clients in many ways, such as obtaining development approvals for residential, commercial, office, hospitality, and industrial projects.
She will also assist clients with permitting, platting, water and sewer, and concurrency issues with a primary focus on the South Florida region and a particular emphasis on Miami-Dade County and its numerous municipalities.
Before joining LSN, Slavens was an equity partner at the law firm Holland & Knight, focusing on land use and zoning and served on the firm's Board of Directors.
"We are proud to have Tracy join the LSN team. She is one of the finest land use attorneys in South Florida. Our clients will benefit tremendously from her knowledge and experience," said Alex Heckler, the managing partner of LSN.
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@mattyglesias: One thing I know for sure about Donald Trump is that if DeSantis beats him fair and square in a primary, he'll accept the results and put the interests of his working-class grassroots conservative supporters first by working like hell to help the GOP ticket beat the Democrats.
—@zacjanderson: Lots of Florida men highlighted in today's Jan. 6 committee hearing, including Michael Flynn, Brad Parscale, Roger Stone, Patrick Byrne, Oath Keeper Kelly Meggs & Proud Boy Enrique Tarrio. FL Proud Boys and Oath Keepers allegedly coordinated Jan. 6 plans. It's
—@SamanthaJoRoth: WOW to this text exchange between Brad Parscale, Trump's campaign manager and Katrina Pierson, a spokeswoman on Trump's 2020 campaign. Parscale: "If I was Trump and knew my rhetoric killed someone." Pierson: "It wasn't the rhetoric" Parscale: "Katrina. Yes, it was"
Tweet, tweet:
—@CHeathWFTV: Florida sports betting (remember the Hard Rock app?) is on hold for at least the rest of the year.
—@SteveLemongello: Disney World's Reedy Creek firefighters endorse DeSantis, despite district's abolishment "We're pretty confident that no matter how this thing shakes out with Reedy Creek that we're going to be fine."
Tweet, tweet:
Tweet, tweet:
— DAYS UNTIL —
36th Annual Environmental Permitting School — 6; San Diego Comic-Con 2022 — 7; Vote-by-mail mailing deadline for 2022 Primary — 8; 2022 Sunshine Summit begins — 9; Deadline to register for 2022 Primary — 12; Beyoncé rolls-out seventh solo studio album 'Renaissance' — 16; MLB trade deadline — 20; The 10-day Florida Python Challenge kicks off — 23; Michael Mann and Meg Gardiner novel 'Heat 2' publishes — 27; Early voting begins for Primaries — 31; FBHA's annual conference, BHCon2022, begins — 35; FRLA's Operations and Marketing Summit — 36; 'House of the Dragon' premieres on HBO — 39; 2022 Florida Primary — 41; 2022 Florida Chamber Technology & Innovation Solution Summit — 49; 'Andor' premieres on Disney+ — 49; 'The Lord of the Rings' premieres on Amazon Prime — 51; NFL Opening Night: LA Rams vs. Buffalo Bills — 57; 2022 Emmys — 61; JMI's 2022 Tech & Innovation Summit begins — 64; Vote-by-mail mailing deadline for General Election — 85; Deadline to register for General Election — 90; 22-23 NHL season begins — 90; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 104; Cormac McCarthy's 'The Passenger' releases — 104; Jon Meacham's 'And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle' releases — 104; Early voting begins for General Election — 108; 2022 General Election — 118; 'Black Panther 2' premieres — 121; 'Captain Marvel 2' premieres — 123; FITCon 2022 begins — 127; 'The Flash' premieres — 127; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 131; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 131; McCarthy's 'Stella Maris' releases — 132; Florida TaxWatch's Annual Meeting begins — 140; 'Willow' premieres on Disney+ — 140; 'Avatar 2' premieres — 156; 'Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania' premieres — 219; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 237; 'John Wick: Chapter 4' premieres — 254; 2023 Session Sine Die — 296; 'Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3' premieres — 296; 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' premieres — 324; 'Dune: Part Two' premieres — 492; 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' Part 2 premieres — 625; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 744.
— TOP STORY —
"New York Times poll shows Ron DeSantis '24 would benefit from Donald Trump collapse" via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — A new national poll offers more evidence that a significant portion of potential Republican voters are ready to abandon Trump.
The survey of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican Primary, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College from July 5 through July 7, showed that 65% of potential Primary voters under the age of 35 and 64% of those with college educations are ready for a different Republican standard-bearer in 2024.
Donald Trump's implosion would be a huge boost to Ron DeSantis.
It also showed that Trump would struggle to hit 50% support in a crowded field, including DeSantis. The former President overall was the choice of 49% of those surveyed, with the Florida Governor at 25% and all other names surveyed at or under 7%.
Sixty-two percent of Fox News voters prefer the former President, with the Governor at just 26%, despite Fox News offering DeSantis as many friendly interviews as he wants.
But the erosion of Trump's support in other areas remains significant. Sixteen percent of Trump 2020 voters said they wouldn't vote for him again, per The New York Times article rolling out the poll. However, even among those who won't commit to supporting Trump 2024, the former President enjoys 65% approval.
Polling continues to show DeSantis gaining strength, seemingly at the expense of Trump.
— 2022 —
"DeSantis leads Trump in new Florida 2024 GOP poll" via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — A survey of 656 likely Republican voters by Blueprint Polling shows DeSantis the choice of 51% when voters who lean one way or another are considered, with a 12-point lead over Trump at 39%. With voters who are firm in their positions, the DeSantis advantage is 14 points, with the Governor taking 47% support and Trump just 33%. "DeSantis attracts 50.9% overall, with the margin among GOP women 11 points greater than with Republican men. Older Republicans are more likely to support Trump, but DeSantis still leads the former President in all age groupings," notes the polling memo. DeSantis also leads with the 17 self-identified nonbinary Republican voters polled, with 47% support compared to 36% for Trump.
Ron DeSantis gains ground against Donald Trump in Florida.
"No, DeSantis isn't worse than Trump" via David French of The Dispatch — Trump presents an existential threat to the continued existence of the United States as an intact republic. Our nation may not survive a second Trump term. DeSantis has flaws, but he's absolutely within the bounds of a mainstream American politician. In short, there's a difference between flaws that are normal-bad and those that are existential threat-bad, and we'd do well to keep our concerns in perspective. My critique of DeSantis has less to do with Trump and more with Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom. DeSantis is more like a California Democrat than he is like Trump. Specifically, DeSantis and Harris are culture warriors prone to fight the culture the wrong way — by deploying state power at the expense of civil liberties.
"A culture warrior goes quiet: DeSantis dodges questions on abortion plans" via Maggie Haberman, Patricia Mazzei and Michael C. Bender of The New York Times — DeSantis, a favorite among those Republicans who want to move on from the Trump era, is rarely a reluctant partisan warrior. But his hesitance to detail his plans for abortion policy reflects the new and, in some states, difficult political terrain for Republicans in the post-Roe v. Wade era, as Democrats grasp for an advantage on the issue in an otherwise largely hostile midterm election year. DeSantis signed a law barring abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. DeSantis has described fetuses in the womb as "unborn babies."
"In run for Governor, Nikki Fried talks about abortion and marijuana, Charlie Crist and DeSantis" via Bianca Padró Ocasio of the Miami Herald — Fried insists she can weather a competitive Democratic primary for Governor this August. Propelling that hope, she said, is keeping Democratic voters' attention on reproductive rights. She is trailing her primary opponent, U.S. Rep. Crist, in cash and endorsements. But she says she has momentum and excitement on her side. "The attention that we are going to get across the nation, Florida will be in play. And if we have myself and Val Demings at the top of the ticket, that shows such a difference than what they've got going for them."
"Who are all these other people running for Governor of Florida?" via Anna Wilder of the Miami Herald — This November, you may be surprised to see more names on the ballot than you expect. Eight other candidates have qualified for the election for Governor of Florida aside from incumbent DeSantis and major Democratic candidates Fried, Commissioner of Agriculture, and Crist, a St. Petersburg Congressman and former Governor. Here's who they are.
Builders back Ashley Moody for re-election — The Associated Builders and Contractors of Florida is endorsing Attorney General Moody in her bid for another term. "As the leading trade association in both the United States and Florida for Commercial Builders and Contractors, representing nearly 2,000 member companies and their tens of thousands of employees statewide, it is our honor to endorse Ashley Moody for Attorney General," said Carol Bowen, the chief lobbyist at ABC of Florida. "Attorney General Moody understands that a strong construction industry allows this trade to thrive for generations to come here in Florida." Moody does not face a challenger in the Republican Primary. Aramis Ayala, Jim Lewis, and Daniel Uhlfelder are competing for the Democratic nomination.
"Val Demings reports $12.2M raised in second quarter" via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — Rep. Demings' U.S. Senate campaign raised $12.2 million in the second quarter of 2022, her best take yet, and what the campaign called a "historic" effort in announcing it. The haul during April, May and June brings her total raised since she entered the race in April 2021 to $41.9 million. Demings' campaign also has been spending significantly lately. Last month her campaign placed an eight-figure advertising buy to run a TV commercial throughout the state for the past several weeks.
Matt Gaetz puts $68K into CD 1 ads — U.S. Rep. Gaetz has made a $68,460 ad buy in the race for Florida's 1st Congressional District. According to AdImpact, the buy was made through Multi Media Services and covers broadcast ads in the Mobile media market that will run July 14-25. The new buy comes a few days after the incumbent Republican placed a $61,145 TV buy for broadcast ads. Gaetz is facing Mike Lombardo in the Republican Primary. Lombardo's campaign has launched ads blasting Gaetz, the subject of an ongoing federal investigation that has not resulted in criminal charges so far.
Matt Gaetz hits the airwaves. Image via AP.
"Gov. DeSantis' new map could clinch this House seat for Florida Republicans" via POLITICO — Seminole County, a fast-growing bedroom community outside of Orlando, will be pivotal to the outcome of the race for Florida's 7th Congressional District, an open seat that Republicans are hoping to claim for the first time since 2016 after redistricting drew the map in their favor. A Republican stronghold for decades, Seminole has been voting for Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections as it becomes more diverse. During the 2020 election, CD 7 voted for Biden over Trump, 55% to 43%. But CD 7 now includes much of southeastern Volusia, a staunchly Republican county. Under this map, drawn by DeSantis, Trump would have beaten Biden 52% to 47% in 2020.
"Martin Hyde raises nothing in Q2, commits to self-funding" via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Hyde raised no money over the year's second quarter to challenge Rep. Vern Buchanan. In his first fundraising support covering a period entirely after a controversial traffic stop, Hyde has confirmed his days soliciting donations have passed, even as his congressional candidacy continues. From April through June, he spent an additional $16,413 on his campaign to challenge Buchanan in a Republican Primary. That mostly went to CCW Broadcast Media and Mars Vision, and he has filmed video ads as he continues the race.
"South Florida Democrats vie for Jewish vote at candidate forum" via Anne Geggis of Florida Politics — DeSantis was one of the most unpopular people discussed at Monday night's forum for South Florida Democratic candidates, landing the candidate who once worked for him in an awkward spot. More than a dozen Democratic candidates, vying for seats ranging from the congressional to the Broward County School Board, stepped up to the Zoom camera to give their elevator pitch at the online event. And when Fort Lauderdale Vice Mayor Ben Sorensen highlighted his history of "fighting Ron DeSantis and his MAGA agenda," his rival for the Democratic nomination to succeed U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch went on the defensive.
— MORE 2022 —
"Kamia Brown, Geraldine Thompson swap subtle jabs in SD 15 forum" via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — Reps. Brown and Thompson found little policy to disagree on at a Senate District 15 candidates forum but managed a few subtle shots at each other's boldness or abilities to work with others. The two veteran lawmakers, who have no Republican or other opponents for the open northwestern Orange County Senate seat, expressed views on school safety, gun laws, affordable housing, voting rights, and property insurance without much difference of opinion or concrete new proposals. But at a Tiger Bay Club of Central Florida forum, discussions of legislative styles drew soft jabs, with Brown suggesting that she is a more effective lawmaker because she is willing to do the behind-the-scenes, bipartisan grunt work. Thompson argued she is more inclined to take on challenging issues.
No punches were thrown, just light jabs.
"Lauren Book hits her career-high in monthly fundraising, raising more than $500K in June" via Anne Geggis of Florida Politics — Democratic Senate Leader Book reached a new personal record for monthly fundraising in June, drawing $539,000 in contributions. Book has a Democratic rival on the ballot for the first time in her political career, and it's produced one of the most-watched legislative races in the state. There's no Republican in the race, so Aug. 23 will be an open Primary for Senate District 35, with all registered voters in the district eligible to vote for either candidate, regardless of political party, which could present a new wrinkle in the contest.
"Ileana Garcia hits cycle-high spending in June, wallops lone Democratic opponent in fundraising" via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Sen. Garcia spent an election cycle-high $19,000 in June, nearly 90% of it on advertising, to stave off a last-minute challenge in Senate District 36 from Democratic local business owner and U.S. Army National Guard veteran Raquel Pacheco. Garcia also raised more than $107,000 last month. A significant chunk of that came from political committees, a mining company and two local unions representing government workers. As of June 30, Garcia had about $645,000 left to spend between her campaign account and political committee, No More Socialism. That's more than 30 times what Pacheco collected since filing for the race on June 8, one week after Rep. Michael Grieco dropped out, complaining of fundraising woes.
"Bay County Sheriff backs Griff Griffitts in HD 6 race" via Aimee Sachs of Florida Politics — With just six weeks to go until the Primary Election, Republican House District 6 contender Griffitts picked up an endorsement from longtime Bay County Sheriff Tommy Ford. "I have stood with Griff Griffitts during and after a Category 5 hurricane, a pandemic, and most recently, major fires," Ford said in a statement. "Griff has always made sure that law enforcement has the tools we need to keep our communities safe and has made sure our first responders are never looked over during budget discussions. He is a man of his word, a trusted, proven leader, and in my opinion, Griff is ready to continue working for Bay County on Day One."
"Sharon Lettman-Hicks spent $2,400 on her campaign the day she was arrested" via Gray Rohrer of Florida Politics — Campaign finance reports show Lettman-Hicks spent $2,391 to pay for campaign signs for her House District 8 race on June 23, the day she was arrested on mail and wire fraud charges stemming from a campaign finance fraud scheme. Federal authorities allege she helped funnel campaign donations from political committees supporting Andrew Gillum's 2018 bid for Governor to Gillum for his personal use. Lettman-Hicks suspended her campaign the day after she was charged but must still file campaign reports.
"Abortion ban details divide HD 39 candidates" via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — House District 39 Republican voters will have a choice in the Primary Election between two candidates who want absolute bans on abortion and one who is willing to discuss exceptions. At a Tiger Bay Club of Central Florida forum, Apopka City Commissioner Doug Bankson and Orange County Republican Chair Charles Hart expressed emphatic opposition to all abortions, while activist Randy Ross offered nuanced and limited opposition. That was one sharp distinction in a forum that saw varying positions or priorities across senior care issues, gun rights, affordable housing, and property insurance reform.
"HD 45 Republicans offer various shades of political ire toward Disney" via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — None of four Republican House candidates seeking to represent the Walt Disney World area oppose the law repealing Disney's special district, but they offered varying degrees of displeasure toward Disney's politics. At a Tiger Bay of Central Florida forum, four Republicans expressed strong faith in DeSantis' vow that, however, his showdown with Disney comes out, the residents of Orange and Osceola counties would not be burdened with the public debts now held by Disney's special government. But their statements varied on the deeper issue, the rhetorical political fight between DeSantis and the state's largest employer, which led to unprecedented legislative action against a corporation last spring.
Lindsay Cross announces state, local endorsements for HD 60 — Democrat Lindsay Cross announced a wave of endorsements from state and local candidates in her bid for House District 60. The list of backers includes St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch, St. Petersburg Councilmember Brandi Gabbard, Agriculture Commissioner Fried, Sen. Darryl Rouson, Sen. Janet Cruz, Rep. Michele Rayner and Rep. Anna Eskamani. "I'm so grateful to expand our coalition of local and regional support in this campaign," Cross said. "These respected leaders know I'm committed to addressing issues directly affecting Pinellas residents, from inflation and gas prices to affordable housing and flooding. When I'm in Tallahassee, I'll work with all our local elected officials to move Pinellas forward."
Police union endorses Toby Overdorf in HD 85 — The Fraternal Order of Police is endorsing Republican Rep. Overdorf in the race for House District 85. "As we approach the 2022 elections, we are aware that strong leaders are needed to lead Florida to a prosperous and safe future," Florida FOP President Steve Zona said. "We need leaders that are dedicated to serving their constituents and have the backs of the law enforcement officers protecting the citizens in their community. Toby Overdorf is the choice of the men and women in FOP District 4 and the Florida State Lodge." Overdorf is unopposed in the Primary and will face Democratic nominee Curtis Tucker in the General Election.
"Juan Carlos Porras campaign for HD 119 gains support from police, firefighters" via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Republican operative turned legislative candidate Porras is now the only candidate in the crowded race for House District 119 to receive endorsements from both a police and firefighter group. On Tuesday, Porras' campaign released word that the Fraternal Order of Police and the Doral-headquartered South Florida Council of Firefighters, a local nonprofit chapter of the International Association of Firefighters, have both agreed to back his campaign. They join the LIBRE Initiative, Americans for Prosperity, Associated Builders and Contractors, and Doral Sen. Ana Maria Rodriguez in supporting Porras, a lifelong HD 119 resident and member of the GOP.
The blue is backing Juan Carlos Porras.
"Cape Coral Mayor's race: John Gunter, Thomas Shadrach vying for job" via Luis Zambrano of the Fort Myers News-Press — Cape Coral is set to elect its first new Mayor since the unexpected death of Joe Coviello in January 2021. Both current Mayor John Gunter, 59, and Thomas Shadrach, 63, are vying for the position, offering two different approaches to running the city. Voters will get their say on the Nov. 8 ballot. Both candidates are looking to manage the ever-growing city of Cape Coral, which currently has a population of more than 200,000, according to the U.S. Census. Gunter, previously the District 1 Council member elected in 2017, was appointed Mayor in a 6-1 vote by the City Council to finish Coviello's term, which expires in November 2022.
"Republicans are gaining ground with Latino voters. Just look at Miami-Dade." via POLITICO — The 2022 Midterm results in Miami-Dade County will be a crucial indicator of whether the Democratic Party can win Florida in the 2024 Presidential Election. Miami-Dade is the most populous county in Florida and is historically left-leaning — and residents have voted for the Democratic Party's presidential candidate since 1992. But Democratic margins are shrinking, which doesn't bode well for the party in 2024. Former President Barack Obama won Miami-Dade by large margins, grabbing 62% of the vote to win Florida in 2012. However, recent election results suggest that Democrats' loyal Miami-Dade base is slipping away.
— STATEWIDE —
"$3.1 billion state employee health insurance plan is up for bid" via Christine Jordan Sexton of Florida Politics — Borrowing a page from its Medicaid program, Florida is putting its $3.12 billion state group health insurance program out for a competitive bid in nine regions across the state. The Department of Management Services released three invitations to negotiate last week, advertising the need for third-party administrators to manage its HMO, PPO, and pharmacy benefits. The three ITNs have the same timelines. Interested parties have until July 21 to submit questions they may have. DMS will post answers to timely submitted questions on Aug. 9.
"Federal agencies helping Florida investigate listeria outbreak linked to ice cream" via News4Jax — The Food and Drug Administration, along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is helping the Florida Department of Health and Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services investigate a listeria outbreak linked to ice cream. Health officials said that the ice cream products of Big Olaf Creamery are a likely source of illness in the outbreak. According to the CDC, nearly all the 23 people known to have been infected in the outbreak either lived in or traveled to Florida about a month before they got sick. The CDC said that one person from Illinois died, and one pregnant woman lost her fetus. The first cases occurred in January of this year but continued through June when two people got sick.
"Florida abortions: 7% performed for patients from out of state" via Sam Sachs of WFLA — While travel for abortion procedures is still legal in some states, even before abortion restrictions were put solely in the hands of state governments, almost 10% of all abortions performed in Florida were for out-of-state residents. The Agency for Healthcare Administration regulates abortion clinics and other health services. Its most recent data, as of June 10, showed that there were 33,382 abortions performed in 2022. Of those, 2,372 had been performed in Florida for out-of-state visitors.
Happening today — The Citizens Property Insurance Corp. Board of Governors meets, 8:30 a.m., The Alfond Inn, 300 East New England Ave., Winter Park. Zoom link here. Call-in: 1-786-635-1003. Code: 95637927111.
Happening today — The State Board of Education meets, 9 a.m., School District Administrative Complex, 817 Bill Beck Blvd., Kissimmee.
"Mehmet Oz bragged about hunting in Florida, but he's never held a license" via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Oz spent months in a Pennsylvania Senate race touting a history of hunting in Florida. But the state Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission has confirmed that Oz never legally had a license to hunt in the Sunshine State. The vast majority of property Oz owns in Florida remains unsuitable for hunting. It's legal to do some hunting without a license, but the state limits what game can be hunted and where that takes place. The absence of a Florida license for hunting indicates Oz's sporting activities may have run afoul of legal requirements or were more limited than the Republican candidate asserted during his Primary campaign.
Dr. Oz better have a license for that thing. Screenshot via YouTube.
— D.C. MATTERS —
"White House urges caution on COVID-19 variants, pushes boosters" via The Associated Press — The Biden administration is calling on people to exercise renewed caution about COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of getting booster shots for those who are eligible and wearing masks indoors as two new highly transmissible variants are spreading rapidly across the country. The new variants, labeled BA.4 and BA.5, are offshoots of the omicron strain responsible for nearly all of the virus spread in the U.S. and are even more contagious than their predecessors. White House doctors stressed the importance of booster doses, even if you have recently been infected.
"Rick Scott says inflation is driving retirees back into workforce" via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Scott, during a Senate Republican Leadership news conference, bemoaned the impact of price hikes and spikes on people who thought they had secured their post-work futures, only to see their dreams dashed. "In my state, I've got a lot of retirees. Many are delaying their retirement or returning to work because they can't afford it right now. They can't afford the gas, the food, the rent that's gone up," said Scott, the wealthiest man in the U.S. Senate. "You've got families that are going to food banks," Scott added. "They've never gone to food banks before in their lives. You've got people taking second jobs all across our state. It's happening in all of our states."
Rick Scott says too many old people are in the workforce. Image via AP.
"Amended veterans toxic exposure bill teed up in House" via Roll Call — The House plans to take up a revised version of sweeping veterans benefit legislation this week after running into constitutional objections to the Senate-passed bill, which included a provision House tax writers never formally blessed. The core of the veterans' bill would make service members who contracted any of 23 conditions — from brain cancer to high blood pressure — after being deployed to an Iraq or Afghanistan combat zone automatically eligible for veterans' health care and disability benefits. That's a change from the current law, which requires veterans to prove their illnesses were a direct result of their deployments rather than some other factor.
"Senate confirms Joe Biden's Pick to direct ATF" via Glenn Thrush of The New York Times — The Senate narrowly confirmed Steven M. Dettelbach to run the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, giving the agency responsible for marshaling the federal response to gun violence its first permanent leader in seven years. Dettelbach, a former federal prosecutor from Ohio, was confirmed by a 48-to-46 vote. He was backed by every Democrat who voted as well as two Republicans, Susan Collins of Maine and Rob Portman of Ohio. West Wing officials regarded Dettelbach's confirmation as important, at least in the short-term, as the modest bipartisan gun control measure passed by Congress and signed into law by the President last month.
— JAN. 6 —
"Jan. 6 panel probes Trump's 'call to arms' to extremists" via The Associated Press — The Jan. 6 committee focused on ways violent far-right extremists answered Trump's tweet for a big Washington rally as a "call to arms," as the panel probed whether they coordinated with White House allies in the deadly U.S. Capitol attack and effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election. The panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol siege is delving into the final phase of Trump's multipronged effort to halt Biden's victory. As dozens of lawsuits and false claims of voter fraud fizzled, Trump met late into the night of Dec. 18 with attorneys at the White House before tweeting the rally invitation — "Be there, will be wild!"
Donald Trump said, 'be there, be wild.' What did you expect? Image via AP.
"Jan. 6 hearing highlights coordination by Florida Oath Keepers, Proud Boys leaders" via Zac Anderson and Antonio Fins of the Tallahassee Democrat — Florida leaders of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys extremist groups coordinated their activities in advance of storming the U.S. Capitol and were in contact with prominent Trump allies including Florida residents Roger Stone and Michael Flynn. The Select Committee to Investigate the Jan. 6 Attack on the United States Capitol focused Tuesday on the activities leading up to Jan. 6, including an extraordinary Dec. 18 meeting at the White House attended by Flynn and fellow Sarasota County resident Patrick Byrne and the coordinated planning by pro-Trump extremists, many based in Florida.
"Liz Cheney says Trump attempted to reach out to Jan. 6 witness" via Andrew Solender and Erin Doherty of Axios — Rep. Cheney said at a Jan. 6 committee hearing on Tuesday that Trump personally called an unidentified Jan. 6 committee witness. Cheney says the committee has referred the matter to the Department of Justice, which has the power to prosecute the former President if it determines he tampered with a congressional witness. "After our last hearing, President Trump tried to call a witness in our investigation, a witness you have not yet seen in these hearings," Cheney said.
"Stephanie Murphy slams Matt Gaetz for conspiring with Trump before Jan. 6" via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Rep. Murphy leveled a serious charge at House colleagues, including Gaetz. During a hearing of the Jan. 6 Committee, the Winter Park Democrat said 11 House Republicans convened with Trump to plot to overturn the 2020 election. Six of those members, including Gaetz, later sought pardons. But the Fort Walton Beach Republican said the description of the Dec. 21 meeting was grossly exaggerated. He also said one of the Republicans in the room was Vice President Mike Pence, who ultimately refused to pursue a plan to reject state electors.
"The Jan. 6 Committee member who fled authoritarianism — and then the Capitol rioters" via Eric Cortellessa of TIME — Murphy is a member of the committee investigating the worst attack on the Capitol since the War of 1812. After six hearings in which other members of the Jan. 6 committee have taken a lead role, Murphy will get her turn on Tuesday, helping lead the questioning as the committee focuses on the role violent extremist groups, such as the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, played during the attack, and their ties to Trump and his associates. In a way, the hearing will serve as Murphy's swan song on Capitol Hill. For Murphy, her career, and in some ways her entire life, has been leading up to this very moment.
"Punta Gorda man stood in formation with Oath Keepers Florida head on Jan. 6" via Frank DiFiore of the Punta Gorda Sun — As Congress explores the events of the 2021 Capitol riot, the Department of Justice continues to pursue criminal charges against defendants — including a Punta Gorda man. David Moerschel, 44, is scheduled to face a criminal trial on Sept. 26 for actions he took as part of the Oath Keepers on Jan. 6, 2021. Authorities allege that Moerschel, clad in combat gear, was part of a military-style "stack," led by Kelly Meggs, the head of the Oath Keepers' Florida chapter. Meggs was mentioned several times during the Tuesday meeting of the Jan. 6 Select Committee. The stack of Oath Keepers are alleged to have entered Congress illegally during the 2020 Electoral College vote certification.
"Venice landowner to meet with Jan. 6 committee" via Bob Mudge of the Venice Gondolier — According to numerous media reports, Venice property owner Patrick Byrne is scheduled to meet behind closed doors with the House committee investigating the events of Jan. 6. Byrne, a Trump ally, was a participant in a December 2020 meeting among the then-President and a number of advisers at which ways to overturn that year's Presidential Election were discussed, reports say. That was among some of the testimony Tuesday from the Select Committee, which had witnesses saying Byrne and Michael Flynn, an Englewood resident and former Army Lieutenant General, met with Trump trying to come up with ways of keeping Trump in power.
— MORE LOCAL: S. FL —
"Royal Palm political consultant admits he lied to get $212K Paycheck Protection Program loan" via Jane Musgrave of the Palm Beach Post — A 42-year-old Royal Palm Beach man, who served as a political adviser to congressional candidate Dale Holness, faces a maximum 30-year prison term and a $1 million fine after admitting he lied to get a loan designed to help businesses survive the COVID-19 pandemic. Omar Smith pleaded guilty in federal court last week to conspiracy to commit wire and bank fraud. U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart didn't set a sentencing date. The guilty plea came two months after FBI agents arrested Smith, claiming he submitted a phony application for a $212,500 loan through the federal Paycheck Protection Program. The relief program was created during the height of the pandemic.
Did Omar Smith go to the well one too many times?
"Gov. DeSantis appoints Palm Beach County Judge Melanie Surber to circuit bench, replacing retiring judge" via Jane Musgrave of the Palm Beach Post — Three years after she became a Palm Beach County judge, Surber has been elevated to the circuit bench. DeSantis appointed the former Assistant Florida Attorney General on Friday to replace longtime Circuit Judge Janis Brustares Keyser, who retired on June 30. Surber's appointment means that a judicial nominating commission will convene soon to find a lawyer to replace her on the county bench. Surber had overseen domestic violence court but was recently moved to county civil court to preside over cases where less than $30,000 is at stake. As a circuit court judge, she will handle felony cases, high-stakes lawsuits, probate, guardianship, and family or juvenile court.
"Demand is high as monkeypox vaccines arrive in Broward" via Cindy Krischer Goodman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Monkeypox vaccines finally arrived in Broward County on Tuesday to high demand as residents rushed to receive a dose. Robert Boo, chief executive officer of The Pride Center for Equality in Wilton Manors, said 864 appointments for the vaccine filled up overnight after slots became available. On Tuesday, Boo became one of the first to receive a dose of Jynneos. "The vaccine is highly sought after," Boo said. "Spread within the community is definitely here. We have got to get ahead of this big rolling ball." ' The monkeypox case count in Broward County is now up to 70 confirmed, and probable cases and local doctors say that almost certainly is an undercount.
"'A true saint': Sister Hilda Alonso, pioneer of the Daughters of Charity in Miami, dies at 101" via Daniel Shoer Roth of the Miami Herald — Miami's Catholic Church has lost one of its venerable pillars. Sister Alonso, a Cuban nun who founded the Daughters of Charity of Saint Vincent de Paul in Miami, dedicated to the care of the poor, and was principal of the Catholic school, Colegio La Inmaculada in Havana, died July 5 in Miami. She was 101. She died peacefully at Casa San Vicente de Paul, the convent in the Flagami area that works extensively with low-income families, providing them with spiritual support, food and other aid, said Sister Eva Pérez-Puelles, the convent's head.
"Another conservative Radio Mambí host says he's leaving as Miami station changes hands" via Lesley Cosme Torres of the Miami Herald — Nelson Rubio, host of a popular Spanish-language radio show on Miami's Radio Mambí, confirmed Tuesday morning that he will be leaving the conservative talk radio station, immediately. Rubio, who was not on air Tuesday morning during his normal time slot, said he will join fellow former Radio Mambí hosts Lourdes Ubieta and Dania Alexandrino at Americano Media, a conservative Spanish-language news organization created in March 2022. According to Fox News Digital, the news organization has been aggressively pursuing hosts who say they are refusing to work for a station being acquired by Latino Media Network, which first reported Rubio's exit.
— MORE LOCAL: C. FL —
"Orlando police: 'No criminal activity' led to panic at Lake Eola fireworks show" via Monivette Cordeiro of the Orlando Sentinel — After reviewing hours of video, investigators determined "no criminal activity" caused hundreds of people to panic and flee last week from the city's fireworks show at Lake Eola, Orlando police said Tuesday. The agency received more than 100 phone calls and followed up with nearly 20 tips through Crimeline, said Heidi Rodríguez, a spokesperson for the Orlando Police Department. "Our detectives have determined no criminal activity was found that led to the commotion experienced at the Fireworks at the Fountain celebration on July 4," Rodríguez said.
Not your typical fireworks show.
"Disney inks major advertising deal with The Trade Desk" via Sarah Fischer of Axios — Disney has reached an agreement with The Trade Desk, a global ad tech company, that makes it possible for brands to target automated ads across Disney properties using data matched on the back end from Disney and The Trade Desk. This is one of the largest media-business efforts yet to craft a new ad-targeting system as third-party tracking fades away, and it's likely to trigger a series of similar partnerships between major media companies and other big ad tech firms.
— MORE LOCAL: SW. FL —
"Charlotte County names new Utilities Director" via the Port Charlotte Sun — The Charlotte County Commission named Dave Watson as its new Utilities Department Director on Tuesday. According to a news release from the county, Watson came to Charlotte County in May 2016 as utilities operations manager. In December, he was appointed interim director. "Watson has worked in the utility and public works industry in both the private and public sectors for over 35 years," the release stated. A licensed professional engineer, Watson recently graduated from Florida Gulf Coast University with a master's degree in public administration. "Dave has demonstrated insightful and capable leadership since taking over the Utilities Department as interim director," County Administrator Hector Flores said in the news release.
"Sunrise man gored in annual 'Running of the Bulls' festival in Spain" via Natalia Galicza of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — A 25-year-old Sunrise man was one of three gored by bulls on Monday in the fifth bull run at the annual San Fermín Festival in Pamplona, Spain. Photos from the event show the man, identified as M.T. by the Navarra regional government, dressed in the traditional red-and-white uniform for the festival, his hand gripping the fence of a bullring in an attempt to flee from one of the charging animals. Other participants were able to leap over a barricade and to safety before a bull could make contact. But just before M.T. could jump away, a horn punctured a hole through his calf.
Live by the bull, gored by the bull.
"SWFL takeover: Chris Sale, Shane McClanahan, Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford pitching in Tampa" via Alex Martin of the Fort Myers News-Press — Southwest Florida will be well represented this week in Tampa Bay. All four pitchers in Major League Baseball with local ties — Sale (FGCU), McClanahan (Cape Coral), Winckowski (Cypress Lake/Estero), and Crawford (FGCU) will be pitching in the series between the Rays and Boston Red Sox, which runs through Thursday. McClanahan and Winckowski, once in the same organization on the travel circuit with SWFL Baseball, will face Wednesday night with plenty of family and friends in attendance. The two have faced each other once before, but it's been over eight years, on April 4, 2014.
— MORE LOCAL: N. FL —
"Tallahassee Mayor, state lawmakers attend gun reform event in Washington" via Aimee Sachs of Florida Politics — Mayor John Dailey and state lawmakers joined elected officials and gun safety advocates from across the country who made the trip to Washington to celebrate the passage of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. The Mayor said it was an honor to represent the capital city and join leaders and activists from around the country at the White House in "recognizing that the issue of gun violence in our communities are local issues." "We're all in this together," Dailey said. The bill includes expanding background checks for gun purchasers under age 21 and pouring $11 billion into mental health services.
John Dailey takes a stand on gun violence. Image via YouTube.
"Christopher Iansiti takes over as FSU Foundation board of trustees Chair" via Aimee Sachs of Florida Politics — The Florida State University Foundation board of trustees has a new chair following a successful year of fundraising. Naples resident and FSU alum Iansiti assumed his new role on July 1. He succeeds Nancy McKay, who served in the role the previous two years. Under McKay's leadership, the board raised more than $93 million in alumni gifts and pledges in the 2022 fiscal year, the second-highest total in a decade. "Nancy left big shoes to fill, but the success we have been experiencing year over year is the culmination of not only her hard work, but the work of every trustee and staff member," Iansiti said in a statement.
— TOP OPINION —
"The Constitution isn't working" via David French for The Atlantic — On the last day of the Supreme Court's most recent term, the Court released two cases that highlight a challenge to American democracy — a challenge that is the direct result of one of the Founders' more consequential miscalculations. They granted Congress more power than any other branch of government, and they mistakenly thought Congress would possess a sense of institutional responsibility and authority. Instead, it is largely a partisan body, drained of any sense of independent civic duty, and American democracy suffers as a result.
The two cases seem unrelated at first glance. One is West Virginia v. EPA, in which the Supreme Court struck down the Environmental Protection Agency's Obama-era clean-power rule.
The second case is Biden v. Texas. The Court upheld the Biden administration's decision to reverse the Trump administration's "remain in Mexico" policy, which required a small number of non-Mexican nationals detained at the border to wait in Mexico during their removal proceedings.
What do these cases have in common? They both arose from serious and problematic congressional inaction.
How do these cases reflect a challenge to American democracy? The problem is simply this: Congress was intended to be the most potent branch of government. It is now the most dysfunctional. And it's dysfunctional in part because the Founders did not properly predict the power of partisanship over institutional responsibility. Even worse, Congress's dysfunction radiates to other branches of government.
— OPINIONS —
"Biden is too old to be President again" via Michelle Goldberg of The New York Times — Many of the crises driving down Biden's approval numbers are not his fault. Nevertheless, I hope he doesn't run again because he's too old. Now, I didn't want Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2020, partly for ideological reasons but even more, because he seemed too worn-out and unfocused. In retrospect, however, given the way Republicans outperformed expectations, Biden may have been the only one of the major candidates who could have beaten Trump; voters showed no appetite for sweeping progressive change. So, I recognize that I could be wrong when I make a similar argument today. But the presidency ages even young men, and Biden is far from young.
"What Florida gets right" via Sal Nuzzo of Spectator World — COVID-19 may have sharpened the contrast between Florida and the states from which its new arrivals have moved. But the popularity of DeSantis and his lockdown-skeptic COVID-19 response is only the latest chapter in a much bigger story. The same dynamic has been there since the Nineties, and the state's success can be attributed to three policy areas from which other states would be wise to learn. These are a dedication to low-tax, low-regulation governance, commitment to school choice, and growth in supply-side health care. Few states can match Florida's commitment to ensuring that the tax burden is low, and the regulatory footprint is minimal. The state consistently stays near the top of the list of fewest state employees per capita.
— ALOE —
"Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band to kick off 2023 tour in Tampa" via Athena Morris of WFLA — Springsteen is scheduled to kick off the North American leg of his 2023 tour right here in Tampa. Springsteen and the E Street Band will perform at Tampa's AMALIE Arena on Feb. 1. Tickets for the show will go on sale at 10 a.m. on July 20. It's the first time the band has performed live since the end of its "The River" tour in 2017. The first North American leg will begin in Tampa and conclude on April 14 in New Jersey.
Bruce Springsteen gets the party started in Tampa. Image via AP.
"The resurgence of American girl doll-core" via Ruth Etiesit Samuel of HuffPost — For years, millennial and Gen Z girls eagerly awaited the catalogs, circling every product imaginable for holiday and birthday wish lists. The now cringey "The Care & Keeping of You" book series educated us on health, well-being and puberty. The "Just Like Me," now "Truly Me" dolls, influenced our own lives, looks and personalities. And then Addy Walker, a young girl enslaved on a North Carolina plantation, was the first Black doll, and the sole one for decades. The brand, American Girl, now owned by Mattel, has expanded over the years and continued to be a mainstay in the memories of middle-class American girls' childhoods.
— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —
Celebrating today are Dan Sweeney of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Tampa City Council member Guido Maniscalco.
___
Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.
(@RexChapman) 
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