Though there are no declared candidates yet, a new survey has a Southwest Florida member of Congress ahead in a hypothetical race to succeed Ron DeSantis in the Governor's Mansion.
The Victory Insights survey has U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds with a plurality of support in a still-embryonic field of potential candidates among 1,200 registered likely Republican voters in the 2026 Primary.
He is ahead of U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz, CFO Jimmy Patronis and Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson.
Per the memo accompanying the poll, "Donalds (21%) currently leads the field, trailed by Gaetz (13%), Waltz (5%), Patronis (3%), and Simpson (2%). More than 40% of voters are undecided, and another 14% say they support 'someone else.'"
Donalds has strong support from his district, the pollsters note, with nearly half the votes from Florida's 19th Congressional District.
Gaetz has the highest negatives, which are offset by support from so-called "Donald Trump MAGA Republicans." But he only won his district by 13%, with Patronis cutting into his margin. Waltz did not carry his district, and Simpson was "not a factor" in any of the three Congressmen's home districts.
Donalds leads with all five "types" of Republicans considered in the survey: the aforementioned MAGA Republicans, as well as so-called "constitutional conservatives," "social conservatives," "traditional Republicans" and "moderate Republicans." He has the highest positive name identification and the lowest negative name identification out of the field.
Endorsements from Trump and DeSantis would matter. More than half of respondents value the former President's take, while more than 3 in 5 would consider the current Governor's blessing before casting their August 2026 ballots.
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