From many years of covering the game of baseball from the on-field play and the business side, I have learned the underlying truth of both – it ain't over 'til it's over.
That said, the Tampa Bay Rays have a huge lead going into the ninth inning of the team's nearly two-decade quest for a new stadium. And the city of St. Petersburg gets to turn 65 acres in the historic Gas Plant District around the stadium into multiple community improvements such as affordable housing construction, a Black History museum, shops, restaurants, and so on.
That much became clear Thursday when the St. Petersburg City Council voted 5-3 on a development plan that includes a $1.3 billion stadium for the Rays. All that remains is for the Pinellas County Commission to approve spending $312.5 million from tourist tax money on the stadium, and, glory be, we will have liftoff.
The odds of the Commission turning down the proposal are about the same as me trying to strike out Aaron Judge. If you want to see a "home run" metaphor, go ahead because this is surely a home run for the Rays, owner Stu Sternberg and St. Pete Mayor Ken Welch.
Today, St. Petersburg is a far different city than the one I repeatedly criticized as the wrong place for Major League Baseball in Tampa Bay. I based that on the Rays' chronic low attendance and the experience of driving from Brandon to Tropicana Field to cover the Rays' games over the years.
I believed the stadium needed to be in the middle of the market, but this agreement ensures that won't happen.
Because of that, I don't believe this will increase attendance significantly in the long term. Fans from eastern and northern Hillsborough will make the drive a few times.
However, once the ballpark's novelty subsides and public transportation between Tampa and St. Pete remains a pipe dream, they'll catch most of the action on TV. That will probably happen sooner than you might think.
That's OK, though. The money the Rays don't make on attendance can be recouped in multiple ways, such as sponsorships, media rights, merchandise sales, etc. The Rays are going to be all right.
For now, though, the cloud that hung over this franchise and St. Petersburg for decades has been lifted. Compare what happened here to the developments in Oakland, which saw its team — the Athletics — finally announce their intention to move to Las Vegas when the A's and city officials couldn't agree on a plan for a new stadium.
I never believed the Rays would take that course, but I also knew that negotiations would be like a root canal with rusty pliers and no anesthesia. I wasn't far off on that one.
Just so we're clear, I also agreed when former Rays manager Joe Maddon eloquently said that Tropicana Field is "improper for Major League Baseball."
It needs to be replaced, and now it almost certainly will be. Drop the confetti.
But please – promise baseball fans everywhere just one thing.
No catwalks in the new ballpark.
Deal?
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