Last Call – A prime-time read of what's going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
A new poll from Emerson College shows Vice President Kamala Harris lagging behind former President Donald Trump in all but one swing state.
The poll of 850 voters showed Trump leading in four of five states considered crucial for both parties' paths to victory in November – he's up 49%-44% in Arizona, 48%-46% in Georgia, 46%-45% in Michigan, and 48%-46% in Pennsylvania. The candidates tied at 47% in the fifth state, Wisconsin.
While the likely Democratic nominee is a long way from pole position, the numbers are a marked improvement over those posted by President Joe Biden in Emerson's final poll before he dropped out of the race.
She trims Trump's polling lead by four percentage points in Arizona, five in Georgia, and three in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris' favorability also exceeded Biden's by seven to 10 percentage points in each state.
"Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling. "Harris' numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March."
While some voters would prefer a different Democratic candidate, such as 36% of Arizona voters preferring U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, support for Harris among Democratic voters exceeds 75% in each swing state.
As for Trump's favorability, he outpaces Harris in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan by one to two percentage point gaps. Harris is seen more favorably in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by just as slim a margin.
Trump outperforms Harris with men in all five states by at least a 13-point margin. Harris has the advantage among women in every state, but she's far from dominant – her edge ranges from one point in Arizona to 12 points in Michigan and Wisconsin.
The poll also broke down the issues driving swing state voters to the polls. Economic issues top the list in all but Arizona, where it ranked second behind immigration. Immigration was the No. 2 in Georgia and Pennsylvania while threats to Democracy were No. 2 in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Housing affordability came third in all five states.
This and other recent polls indicate Harris has a little more oomph than the 81-year-old incumbent, though given his foundering support over the past few months, that's not an exceptionally high bar to clear. Still, Harris's name at the top of the ticket will make the presidential race more competitive than it's seemed since the Biden-Trump debate.
Evening Reads
–"Why you'd still rather be Donald Trump today" via Chris Cillizza of So What
–"Democratic convention planners are working to pull off a dramatic Joe Biden-Kamala Harris role reversal" via Will Weissert of The Associated Press
–"The 57 must-see lines from Trump's Charlotte speech" via Chris Cillizza of So What
–"Harris narrows gap against Trump, Times/Siena poll finds" via Shane Goldmacher, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker of The New York Times
–"A JD Vance-aligned think tank is stirring the pot with conservatives" via Zachary Warmbrodt of POLITICO Magazine
–"Why almost everyone assumes Harris has to pick a White man as VP" via Ashley Parker and Dylan Wells of The Washington Post
–"Dem women in state Legislature say outpouring of support for Harris is also coming from Florida" via Jackie Llanos of the Florida Phoenix
–"Family, friend and longtime aides dominate Harris's inner circle" via Tarini Parti of The Wall Street Journal
–"Harris tells teachers union she's ready to fight for country's future – 'bring it on'" via Josh Boak of The Associated Press
–"Faith and politics: Catholic groups spend to defeat Florida's abortion rights amendment" via Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel
–"Florida Republicans applaud California's banning of homeless camps" via Ana Goñi-Lessan of the Tallahassee Democrat
Quote of the Day
"We saw the debate; we saw the speech last night. We know he doesn't have the capacity to make the choices."
– U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, calling for Kamala Harris to invoke the 25th Amendment.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Gov. Ron DeSantis gets an Extreme Martini for his latest dig on the Democratic Party – that they're harboring a "Hamas caucus."
The Yes on 4 team needs a round of 11th Hours while they wait to see whether the Florida Supreme Court will nullify the new "financial impact statement" warning voters about the amendment implications.
Cue the Exit Music for Johnnie "Buck" Lloyd, who has closed his campaign to challenge Rep. Dana Trabulsy in the Republican Primary.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Olympic Games officially open Friday
The opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Paris is scheduled for tomorrow (1:30 p.m. ET, NBC with encore presentation at 7:30 p.m. ET).
The ceremony will be the first in Olympic history to be held outside of an Olympic stadium and the first to be held on the water as the teams boat down the Seine. 10,500 athletes are expected to take part in the opening ceremony. After a six-kilometer trek, the final stages of the ceremony will take place at the Trocadéro, across the Seine from the Eiffel Tower.
A unique aspect of the ceremony is that it is open to all spectators without regard to a ticket. Organizers expect it to be the most attended opening ceremony in Olympic history.
For the United States Olympic team, basketball great LeBron James and tennis star Coco Gauff will serve as flag bearers. James becomes the first basketball player to carry the flag for the U.S. in an Olympic opening ceremony. Gauff was scheduled to compete in the 2020 Games in Tokyo but pulled out after testing positive for COVID-19.
Some sports began competition before the opening ceremony, but this weekend the first medals will be awarded in sports as varied as shooting, diving, and cycling. The first medals will be awarded in swimming with the men's and women's 400-meter freestyle finals. That could include Katie Ledecky, now an assistant coach at the University of Florida, who could earn her 11th Olympic medal. Ledecky is also scheduled to compete in the 1500-meter freestyle, 4x200 freestyle relay, and the 800-meter freestyle.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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