It's not just fake news anymore that worries the Donald Trump campaign. Fake polls apparently are also an issue, per advisor Brian Hughes.
"The Fake News Media continue to help dangerously liberal Kamala Harris hide her record of economic failure and soft on crime policies," Hughes said.
"Now, as this analysis shows they'll even put a finger on the scale of polling to inflate results for her. This analysis is why the American people are seeing through it and will not allow this national gaslighting campaign to win. Despite this manipulated result, from CBS/YouGov it's worth noting that in July and August of 2020, their data showed Biden leading by 10 nationally, reflecting a net positive movement of almost +10 to President Trump this election cycle
Hughes' mathematics is a response to polling that is tighter than Joey Chestnut's stomach after a hot dog eating contest, especially in the battlegrounds, but with Trump ahead in more places than the VP.
Harris and Trump are tied in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona, according to the poll's modeling for the states. Trump is up in Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris is only up in Nevada. All leads are 3 points or less.
"She has a 1-point edge nationally — something President (Joe) Biden never had (he was down by 5 points when he left the race) — and Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied across the collective battleground states," reads the CBS writeup, released Sunday.
The Trump campaign says the pollster skewed methodology to drive a narrative, allowing "the share of registered voters to shift on the share of each ideological group" compared to the last time in the field.
"In this survey, liberals make up 30.2% of the weighted respondents (935 of 3,092), an increase of +1.7% compared to July 18. Moderates make up 30.3% of weighted respondents (938 of 3,092), a decrease of -1.5% compared to July 18. Conservatives make up just 35.5% of weighted respondents (1,097 of 3,092), a decrease of -1.2% compared to July 18," Hughes complained.
"This occurred all while CBS / YouGov made a point to hold stable their weights for age, race, sex, and partisanship. Had CBS / YouGov done the same on ideology, President Trump would be maintaining a 51-49 lead in the August 4 survey."
Regardless, that result would be inside the +/- 2.1-point margin of error, suggesting that despite Team Trump's protests, the race is up in the air no matter how surveys are weighted.
No comments:
Post a Comment