U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee ran for a newly drawn battleground seat in 2022 and ensured it was represented by a Republican from the jump. But she started this election cycle at odds with the effective leader of the national party.
Former President Donald Trump startled the political world with a Truth Social post in March calling for a Primary challenge to Lee. Less than three months later, he reversed course and backed the incumbent in person on Capitol Hill. But before that, his call inspired two Republicans to challenge Lee in a GOP Primary to be decided on Aug. 20.
Jennifer Barbosa and James Judge, two Republicans who previously challenged incumbents before in other districts, qualified in April in Florida's 15th Congressional District.
Lee said any tension with the party's conservative flank is old news. When she secured Trump's formal endorsement, she made clear her plans to be a loyal partner if both are elected to new terms in Washington.
"I am incredibly honored and humbled to have President Trump's endorsement," she posted on X. "When he is elected in November, I vow to work alongside him as an America-first conservative to reverse the policies of the (Joe) Biden administration, including the crisis at our southern border."
But neither of Lee's opponents has backed off their challenge, even after Trump reversed course.
"The energy to unseat Lee after Trump endorsed her is still here because it existed before Trump expressed his dismay with her," Barbosa said.
"My campaign was never rooted in Trump. It is rooted in unseating a Congresswoman who runs as America First but votes repeatedly with far left Democrats. She has a 66% rating from the Club For Growth, which rates fiscal conservatism, because she votes YES on every trillion dollar spending bill. I will vote NO. We need to stop funding corrupt Democrat policies, like DEI, which are contained in those bills."
Judge maintained he will be a better representative for constituents in the district.
"I am a Christian, unapologetic conservative Republican and the only military veteran in this race," he posted on social media.
Judge, prior to Trump's call, intended to challenge U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis, a Palm Harbor Republican. That came two years after an unsuccessful challenge to U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, a Tampa Democrat. That makes Lee the third sitting U.S. Representative he filed against in as many years.
Barbosa also has a history of challenging incumbents. The Plant City resident in 2020 made a long shot run against U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a California Democrat now considered a front-runner for a Senate seat in the Golden State. Barbosa in 2020 pulled just 6% of the vote in that race.
Lee, even when at odds with Trump, remained in the good graces of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which depends on incumbents from Primary challenges. The Washington organization has kept an eye on the race, but after qualifying week signaled little concern after the field was finalized.
But Barbosa and Judge both have stressed their own connection to the east Hillsborough, west Polk district. "I was born and raised here in the Tampa Bay Area and I'm grateful for all of the endorsements that are stacking up in support of my campaign," Judge posted.
Barbosa said she was raised in Tampa Bay, and her first job ever was in CD 15. "If the NRCC is the one suggesting Lee is the only candidate with roots in this district, that makes sense because the NRCC, like Laurel Lee, is based 900 miles away in D.C." She noted Lee's campaign paperwork this year listed a primary address in Washington, D.C.
But Lee remains the only candidate in the Republican Primary who has served the region in elected and appointed office in the past. Before her election to Congress, Lee served as Gov. Ron DeSantis' Secretary of State, and Gov. Rick Scott previously appointed her as a Circuit Judge in Florida's 13th Judicial Circuit. She worked as a prosecutor before that.
And for years, Lee's family remained based in Thonotosassa even as she led Florida's State Department based in Tallahassee. Her husband, former Florida Senate President Tom Lee, represented east Hillsborough in the Florida Senate for years.
The chief attacks leveled against Lee have involved her voting record — and sometimes a lack thereof. Barbosa has hammered Lee for missing a vote this Summer on holding U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland in inherent contempt. Lee's Office noted she missed a series of votes that day for a medical need that required a visit to the doctor.
But Judge would like to see Lee vote more conservatively. "It's important to note my focus remains the same. I am running to end the anarchy at the southern border, restore law-and-order nationwide, balance the budget and pay down our national debt, something the Congresswoman has demonstrated she is adamantly against," he said.
Of note, while Republicans in the Primary all claim a mantle of conservatism, CD 15 remains arguably the most competitive seat in Florida represented by a Republican. Lee in 2022 won 58.5% of the vote to Democrat Alan Cohn's 41.5%, but Republicans overperformed throughout Florida in the Midterms that cycle. Just 50.86% of CD 15 voters under the new lines voted for Trump in the 2020 election, compared to 47.74% who supported Democrat Joe Biden.
During the Presidential Primary in March, the district had about 163,000 registered Republicans compared to 141,000 Democrats.
Certainly, Democrats hope to put up a fight in the district in November. Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp filed to challenge Lee, and won the Democratic nomination without opposition. Kemp, as of the end of July, has almost $152,000 in cash on hand ready, more than Barbosa and Judge raised altogether.
Heading into August, Lee has nearly $1.3 million in cash on hand for the race. Compared to Judge's $4,500 and Barbosa's $2,100. But it's votes, not dollars, that will determine which Republican advances to November.
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