Don't believe the hype, claims senior officials in the Donald Trump campaign.
National polls that show Kamala Harris surging will come back down to earth, claim Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis.
They expect "another small (albeit temporary) bounce for Harris in the public polls" that come out this weekend and in the coming days, but believe that "two to three point bump" is "temporary."
"Post-Convention bounces are a phenomenon that happens after most party conventions. In 2016, President Trump and Hillary Clinton both got an average 2-point bump after their conventions. Back in 1992, Bill Clinton got an 8-point bounce, while that same year, George H.W. Bush got a 5-point bounce. While they vary, the usual range is somewhere between 1 and 4 points."
More historical examples are used to support the claim of polling variance.
"But when you see this bounce remember that in 1988, Gallup had Michael Dukakis up 17 on then-Vice President Bush in the immediate aftermath of the DNC. Most polls had John McCain up 2 to 4 points on Barack Obama in 2008 the week after the RNC. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 7-points on President Trump after her convention in the RCP average. We all know how those ended up. These bumps do not last."
The polling average nationally shows Harris up 49% to 46%, with national polls showing a bigger lead. Surveys that reflect the DNC should surface Sunday morning, meanwhile.
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