When the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced a first round of targeted incumbents for 2022, U.S. Rep. Darren Soto appeared right away. More than a year later, he remains the only Florida Democrat in the crosshairs for House Republicans.
But heading into the General Election, how vulnerable will the Kissimmee Democrat be? And after massive 2022 wins with a Republican-friendly congressional map that's not changing anytime soon, is there any more ground to gain for Republicans in the Sunshine State?
Thomas Chalifoux, a retired Army Colonel and former Osceola County School Board member, certainly thinks so, and has put $2 million out of pocket on the line to pursue the chance. The Orlando Republican emerged this month from a Republican Primary as his party nominee in Florida's 9th Congressional District, winning about 50% of the vote to easily defeat former state Rep. John Quiñones and Disney resort manager Jose Castillo.
"As a veteran and a business leader, I have a proven track record of getting results, whether it's protecting our nation or growing jobs," Chalifoux said.
"I will fight to lower taxes, improve public safety, and defend the values that make our community strong. Voters deserve a voice in Congress who will prioritize their concerns, stand up to the political establishment, and work tirelessly to improve our quality of life. That's why I'm running, and that's why I'm asking for their support this November."
But Soto's campaign feels positive, focused on the incumbent's work over four terms in Congress and on the people's confidence in him.
"Darren has continued to deliver for fast-growing Central Florida on jobs, infrastructure, healthcare and our environment! He is standing up for women, seniors and veterans. And he works day in and day out to honor the trust placed in him by the voters of the 9th District," said Harry Kruglik, a Soto spokesperson.
"Darren is delivering on higher paying jobs. He helped secure the biggest CHIPS Act project in the state, over $500 million for NeoCity to boost semiconductor manufacturing and aerospace exploration. He delivered millions for medical research at Lake Nona, including the VA Hospital, Nemours and UCF Medical School; and helped Beep expand autonomous vehicles. He is also working on Green Garden Village in Poinciana, the largest proposed Inflation Reduction Act project in the state."
He also has a track record with voters. The former state Senator first won his House seat in 2016 with about 58% of the vote over Republican Wayne Liebnitzky, and bested that performance in a rematch two years later.
But part of the reason Republicans see a shot at defeating Soto has been the diminishing results since then.
Soto in 2020 won with a slightly slimmer 56% of the vote in 2020 against Republican Bill Olson. In 2022, he took less than 54% of the vote against Republican Scotty Moore. That was the lowest amount of support for any incumbent Congressman in Florida that year.
Those changes happened in part because redistricting has reshaped CD 9 significantly from the more Democratic-heavy jurisdiction where the Congressman first won federal office. The district now serves a Hispanic seat, and Republicans have made inroads in recent election cycles with that demographic.
Republicans have also made progress in voter registration over the last four years, particularly in Osceola County.
When voter rolls closed for the March Presidential Primary this year, the district served as home to more than 165,000 Democrats, about 37% of voters there, compared to more than 116,000 Republicans and 149,000 voters with no party affiliation. But in 2022, Democrats made up more than 39% of all registered voters in the district. In fact, the raw number of registered Democrats in CD 9 has dropped by 70,000 in less than two years (Republican registrations also declined by about 50,000).
Republicans acknowledge Soto's 2022 margin of victory means it will be a reach to knock him out this cycle, but they feel satisfied with Chalifoux, who can bring personal resources into the race.
"As an Army veteran and a businessman, Thomas is uniquely qualified to push back on Darren Soto's embrace of the (Kamala) Harris-(Tim) Walz agenda of open borders and high cost of living," said NRCC spokesperson Delanie Bomer. "We are ready and eager to remind Floridians of Darren Soto's extreme anti-border security record, antisemitic votes and Defund the Police advocacy."
As of July, Chalifoux boasted a cash on hand advantage that was more than double Soto's cash. He reported more than $1.85 million in the bank to Soto's roughly $799,000. But Chalifoux did have to spend ahead of the Aug. 20 GOP Primary. Moreover, only around $77,000 in the Republican's war chest comes from outside donations, with the bulk coming from a candidate loan, so campaign spending may hinge on whether he ever wants to see that money again.
But he voices confidence
"My message to voters this Fall is simple: it's time for leadership that puts our community first, not Washington special interests. For too long, Rep. Darren Soto has been more focused on aligning with the far-left agenda than addressing the real needs of Florida's 9th Congressional District. From rising crime to skyrocketing costs of living, our community faces serious challenges, and we need a representative who will take bold action to solve them," he said.
"Illegal immigration is a significant issue that is undercutting the hardworking people of our district and threatening our national security. The current administration's failure to secure our borders has led to increased competition for jobs and resources, making it harder for American families to get ahead. As a veteran, I know the importance of defending our nation's borders and will fight to enforce our immigration laws, prioritize legal pathways, and ensure that our communities remain safe and prosperous."
Soto's campaign said it will be prepared to defend the Congressman's record delivering for the district, including $3.5 billion for Interstate 4 expansion, $300 million for Orlando International Airport's Terminal C and runways, more than $50 million for affordable housing, and $16 million for the SunRail/Brightline expansion.
"He supported the PACT Act, allowing thousands more toxic-exposed veterans in Central Florida to file benefits claims. He voted to cap insulin costs at $35 per month for seniors. And he has voted to defend women's right to reproductive freedom," Kruglik said.
"With this record of accomplishment, Darren hopes to continue to earn the support of FL-9 voters."
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