While a "Blue Mirage" may sound like a cocktail one might have by the pool, the Donald Trump campaign warns that it's actually driving "voter suppression."
"To be clear: Kamala Harris's campaign and their allies in the fake news media are already spreading misinformation about the state of play as part of a coordinated and intentional voter suppression effort against President Trump's supporters," says data consultant Tim Saler.
He adds that "early Democrat leads in absentee and vote by mail are not at all predictive of victory on November 5th and may, in fact, be indicating a major failure to meet the enormous margins that they delivered in the 2020 election."
The argument here is that Democrats are simply delivering guaranteed votes early, in other words, with an operation Republicans historically haven't matched, but that is all for nothing anyway.
"Ballots will go out imminently in North Carolina, marking the start of pre-Election Day voting in the battleground states. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 2:1 in requested absentee ballots in 2020. In 2020, President Trump carried North Carolina despite a 421,912 ballot deficit in absentee by-mail votes," Saler claims.
In Pennsylvania, "Trump fought off a 1,400,150 ballot deficit in absentee and mail-in ballots, including drop boxes."
Even in states that look at party registration differently, the same trend plays out.
"Michigan does not have party registration, but we know from our own analysis that behavioral Democrats outnumbered behavioral Republicans in absentee and mail-in voting by a 2:1 margin in the 2020 election, and these votes totaled nearly 60 percent of all ballots cast, more than 3.2 million in aggregate. The New York Times reported a Biden +40 advantage among absentee ballots in Michigan."
No comments:
Post a Comment